NFL Week 11 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 16, 2014 5:34 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 16, 2014 5:34 PM UTC

Last week there were two public plays that split, while the late wise guy action on the Saints proved to be disastrous . Find out which fluctuations in the NFL odds have caught the attention of squares and sharps alike in Week 11.


Vikings (+4 ½ to +2 ½) vs. Bears
You will find this game in all three of my NFL picks articles this week because it was not only a selection in my Bust Your Bookie article but it was also mentioned in my subsequent article regarding how the late action has affected my Week 11 NFL picks. And now I write about the most prolific moves of the week and once again this game fits the bill.

The Bears opened as 4 ½ point home chalk but that line has plummeted to as low as 2 ½ at shops like 5, and The public loves backing underdogs because they play them so rarely and doing so makes them feel sharp. But this could be a very slippery slope as the Bears have a golden opportunity to prove they're not the laughingstock they are purported to be and Marc Trestman knows full well that a loss here would be a pink slip to the unemployment line.

NFL Pick: Public & Wise Guy Lean on the Vikings         




Eagles vs. Packers (-4 ½ to -6)
You might think the feel good story of Mark Sanchez's rebirth in Philly, however ephemeral it may prove to be, would carry over into this tilt at Lambeau. But Green Bay ain't Hollywood and the bettors evaluating this game have clearly sided with the Pack. I am surmising that this game is nothing more than Joe Q. Public getting down hard on Green Bay because moving off of a 4 ½ to a 6 is really no great shakes. How many games are decided by five? Not many and now the Packers have been bet to as high as six in NFL odds but again, this is not a 3,4 or a 7. Certainly six is not irrelevant as it equates to a pair of field goals but this doesn't pass the sniff test of wise guy action.

NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Packers



Bengals vs. Saints (-5 ½ to 7 ½)
It wasn't too long ago when Dandy Andy and his Cats were the toast of the AFC. But then they had a most unfortunate scheduling date with a humiliated band of Patriots, one week after their ignominious defeat by the Chiefs, at a battlefield in Foxboro, Massachusetts affectionately known in New England as The Razor. The Bengals entered as tigers but departed as kitty cats as the Patriots manhandled Cincy to the tune of 43-17. Since that time the Bengals have registered a 2-2-1 straight up and 1-4 ATS mark while the Pats have gone undefeated.

But the 24-3 loss last week to their intrastate rivals, the Cleveland Browns, was perhaps even more embarrassing than the massacre at Foxboro. Dalton was historically bad and many have suggested that it could have reverberating effects. Though all this speculation may have some validity, this line smacks of some sharp action. Any time a line moves through both a six and a seven there is more to it than just the squares laying it in on the chalk. BTW, this is the second consecutive week that the sharps will be backing New Orleans in their NFL picks.

NFL Pick: Wise Guy Lean on the Saints



Raiders vs. San Diego (-8 to 11 ½ at 5Dimes)
I'm not sure how long SD-8 was offered in NFL odds but it wasn't long. Personally I think this is a case of an oddsmaker hanging a bad early line that was devoured before the rest of us even knew it existed. By the time I got around to laying the lumber on the big favorite I had to buy this from 10 to 9 ½ (-120) as part of my Week 11 NFL picks and that number looks pretty good right about now. I believe the public is smelling blood in the water.

Free NFL Pick: Public Lean on the Chargers

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