NFL Week 11: Picks that Pack the Value

NFL Week 11: Picks that Pack the Value
Damien Harris #37 of the New England Patriots. Photo by Maddie Meyer/Getty Images/AFP

The NFL season marches on and we continue our never-ending quest to seek the best value for football selections. Do we get them all correct? No, but it’s not for a lack of effort on our part.

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What a difference a day makes. When we first started putting this article together at mid-week, we came with four teams that appeared to have the most value. When we came back a day later, the NFL odds had moved dramatically, and only one of those four clubs ended up making it this far.

Tennessee, Miami, and Kansas City all saw their point spread number shift enough that the value of backing them, at least in this writer’s opinion, was like droplets of water on Tucson sidewalk in the summer, they just dried up. Thus, we move ahead to our revised edition, still looking to beat those online betting sites.

New England Patriots vs. Houston Texans

Sunday, November 22, 2020 – 1:00 pm ET at NRG Stadium

After four consecutive losses, New England appeared doomed to a losing season. Though the schedule still has enough bumps in the road to prevent the Patriots from becoming a .500 team, they at least have a chance after two straight triumphs.

Bill Belichick is attempting to control the tempo of games by running the ball. New England is shortening games by averaging a league-best 33 carries a contest, which helps his vulnerable defense from seeing the field as often. The Pats are third in rushing at 161.2 per game, and their zone blocking scheme is working to perfection for RB Damien Harris, who is running like every attempt could be his last.

The Pats are 1.5-point road favorites at Houston according to Heritage Sports and they are up against the NFL’s worst run defense in Houston. The Texans are being carved up like next week’s turkey for over 167 YPG and we’ve all seen Deshaun Watson sitting on the bench waiting to reenter games because the defense cannot get off the field.

With New England rushing the ball with authority, which opens up the play-action passing game for Cam Newton, for NFL picks, we’ll pound the Pats.

NFL Picks: Patriots -1.5 at Heritage Sports

Patriots -1.5-108
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Philadelphia Eagles at Cleveland Browns

Sunday, November 22, 2020 - 1:00 pm ET at FirstEnergy Stadium

The Philadelphia Eagles are about as interesting as the reboot of “Jersey Shore”. Though Eagles fans will never forget the 2017 season, similar to the cast from the popular show that first aired 2009-2012, the only thing that both have in common is the brand because the rest is unappealing.

The Eagles are 3-5-1 (3-6 ATS), and they are very fortunate to be members of the NFC East. Starting this week, Philly will take on five teams in a row that when they play them, they almost certainly will have winning records and, in some cases, elite records.

The journey commences against Cleveland, and despite the Browns having a 6-3 they are 3-6 ATS and failed to cover their last four. While it’s easy to jump on Cleveland, keep in mind that in two of those skirmishes, they played in horrific windy weather and took on Pittsburgh on the road.

The Browns have the No. 4 rushing attack with Nick Chubb back healthy to go along with Kareem Hunt. Though the Eagles defensive front receives accolades, they are 26th against the rush. With Cleveland’s ability to punish Philadelphia and Carson Wentz always in a giving mood (with the football), the Browns at -3 depending on the betting site seems like a Black Friday deal.

NFL Picks: Browns -3 at Bovada (visit our Bovada Review)

Browns -3-110
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Quarterback Jared Goff #16 of the Los Angeles Rams talks with head coach Sean McVay. Photo by Jayne Kamin-Oncea/Getty Images/AFP

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, November 23, 2020 - 8:15 pm ET at Raymond James Stadium

Tampa Bay opened at -3.5 and has since climbed to -4. The Buccaneers throttled Carolina in the second half last Sunday, and football bettors are convinced they put that wretched game against New Orleans behind them.

While this is probably true, the Los Angeles Rams are hardly paupers at 6-3. The Rams have shifted gears this season and have gone from the pretty boy of the last couple of years to a group that likes to lay the lumber on offense and defense. Oh sure, Sean McVay’s squad still runs the jet sweeps and other plays designed to fool rather than overpower the opposition. Nonetheless, they also will run it down their foes throats and have an unrelenting pass rush.

Going to the Eastern Time zone is like a trip to San Diego by now for this roster, as this is their fifth trip in 10 contests. And bonus, it’s a night game with no early wake-up calls.

Tampa Bay has earned their respect at 7-3, and so have the Rams in receiving more than a field goal. Plus, we find the total at 48.5, and when the total is between 42.5 and 49 points in the last three years, the boys from La-La Land are 15-6 ATS.

NFL Picks: Rams +4 at Intertops (visit our Intertops Review)

Rams +4-110
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