NFL Week 11 Pick: Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 8:15 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 8:15 PM UTC

The Bucs and Dolphins battle for bragging rights in the lower half of Florida on Sunday – Jacksonville is clearly the best team in the Sunshine State in 2017. Survivor Pick: Miami.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Miami Dolphins (-2.5, 40.5)

The Bucs were supposed to visit Miami in Week 1, but Hurricane Irma postponed that. The NFL didn’t want to have these teams be at the huge disadvantage to the rest of the NFL by playing 16 straight weeks but there was really no other option with both Tampa and Miami originally on the bye in Week 11. The only other option in Week 1 was a neutral site, but the Dolphins didn’t want to lose a second home game after already giving one up to play in London. I don’t think the reason both clubs have disappointed is because of no bye week, but it surely isn’t helping at this point. It’s a short week for the Fins after getting blasted Monday night in Carolina. Tampa Bay ended a five-game losing streak on Sunday with an ugly 15-10 win over the visiting Jets. That temporarily took some of the heat off embattled Coach Dirk Koetter, but the Bucs likely will have to finish strong if he is to return. You hear more and more rumors that Jon Gruden, who lives in Tampa, could return to the Bucs’ sideline in 2018.

  • Buccaneers are 1-6-1 ATS in their last 8 games overall.
  • Dolphins are 8-3-2 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Dolphins -2.5Best Line Offered: BetCris

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I shouldn’t really have to explain why I’ll be leaning under here: It’s Ryan Fitzpatrick against Jay Cutler at quarterback. In the win over his former Jets team, Fitzpatrick completed 17 of 34 passes for 187 yards, a TD and an interception. The 34-year-old became one of just four players in NFL history to throw TD passes for seven different teams. Jameis Winston remains out with a shoulder injury and it’s possible he won’t play again this year. Fitzpatrick at least will have Pro Bowl receiver Mike Evans this week. He was suspended in Week 10 for an incident vs. the Saints. Miami lost a third straight Monday night, 45-21 to the Panthers, who had a franchise-record 548 yards. Cutler had 213 yards passing with two touchdowns and one terrible interception. Miami's defense has plenty of talent but has allowed 37.3 points per game during the team's three-game losing streak. I just don’t see Fitzpatrick doing much against that group.

  • Under is 5-1-1 in Buccaneers last 7 games following a straight up win.
  • Under is 6-1 in Dolphins last 7 games when playing on Sunday following a Monday night game.
Free NFL Pick: Under 40.5Best Line Offered: BetUS

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