NFL Week 11 Pick: Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 8:50 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 8:50 PM UTC

The NFL’s best team against its most popular one on Sunday Night Football? Think this might do decent ratings and a solid betting take? Survivor Pick: Dallas.

Philadelphia Eagles at Dallas Cowboys (-3, 48)

NBC has to be doing cartwheels over this game as it will draw mega-ratings and be equally big betting-wise at SBR’s top-rated sportsbook. After all, you have the team with the NFL’s best record in the Eagles (8-1), who are off their bye, and the hot young player in the NFL in MVP favorite Carson Wentz. This is the fifth time in franchise history the Eagles have started a season 8-1 or better (1949, 1960, 1980 and 2004) and the team advanced to the NFL Championship/Super Bowl in each of the previous four instances.  Wentz leads the NFL with 23 touchdown passes and his 104.1 passer is first in the NFC. Wentz’s TD passes are the most by an Eagle in the team’s first nine games to start a season in franchise history. Then you have America’s Team in the Dallas Cowboys, who always drive the ratings and betting needle. At 5-4, the Cowboys can forget about repeating in the NFC East if they lose this game, and a wild card is going to be tough against competition like Carolina, Seattle, Detroit and Atlanta (I’m leaving out Minnesota, New Orleans and the LA Rams as they lead their respective divisions). These teams split last year, each winning at home. The Week 17 game in Philly was meaningless as Dallas rested most of its starters.

  • Road team is 8-3 ATS in their last 11 meetings.
  • Cowboys are 2-8 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Eagles -2.5 (buy down from 3)Best Line Offered: GT Bets

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Wentz leads an offense that ranks No. 4 in yards per game and No. 2 in points per game (31.4). The Eagles plan to give tailback and new trade addition Jay Ajayi a bigger role this week. After having only a few days to prepare for Denver in Week 9, Ajayi turned in a nice debut in leading the team with 77 rushing yards and earning his first touchdown of the season. The Eagles should have little trouble scoring 30 because the best Cowboys defender, middle linebacker Sean Lee, is out with a hamstring problem. Meanwhile, Cowboys QB Dak Prescott, in his second year like Wentz, is one of only four players since the 1970 merger to account for at least 50 touchdowns in his first 25 career NFL games. Prescott has passed for 39 TDs and rushed for 11 TDs in his first 25 career games. Prescott’s 11 rushing scores are the most by a quarterback since the start of last season. Prescott might not have Pro Bowl tackle Tyron Smith again, though. Prescott was sacked eight times in last week’s loss in Atlanta without Smith.

  • Over is 14-2 in Eagles last 16 road games.
  • Over is 5-1 in Cowboys last 6 vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Over 48Best Line Offered: Heritage

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