NFL Week 11 Pick: New England Patriots at Oakland Raiders

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 5:39 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2017 5:39 PM UTC

There was a major earthquake in September near Mexico City, but Estadio Azteca made it through in good shape and the NFL decided to keep this game there. Survivor Pick: Oakland.

New England Patriots “at” Oakland Raiders (+7, 53.5)

I thought this would be a preview of the AFC title game entering this season. I suppose it still could be as the Patriots look like they will get back there on a five-game winning streak and atop the AFC East at 7-2. The Raiders are 4-5 and have a lot of work to do to get into the postseason. They come off their bye week. The Patriots impressively won at Denver last Sunday night as Tom Brady passed for 266 yards with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 125.4 passer rating. It was Brady’s 86th career regular-season road win, passing Peyton Manning for the most by any starting QB in history. Brady was named AFC Offensive Player of the Week for his performance. It marked the 30th time in his career that Brady has earned a Player of the Week honor, which extends his own NFL record. It is his third such honor this season. Brady leads the NFL in completions (231), attempts (343) and passing yards (2,807), ranks second in passer rating (108.3) and tied for second in touchdown passes (19). The guy is 40! I like Oakland here as it has to win and perhaps playing last year in Mexico City and beating Houston is a slight advantage. Plus, coming off the bye.

  • Raiders are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games following a bye week.
  • Raiders are 9-3-1 ATS in their last 13 games after allowing more than 350 total yards in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Raiders +7.5 (buy up from 7)Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

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The Patriots and Raiders last played against each other on Sept. 21, 2014 in a 16-9 New England victory at Gillette Stadium. This one might have 25 total points in the first quarter. Why wouldn’t this be a shootout? The Patriots lead the NFL in total offense (409.4 yards per game) and passing offense (301.6). Oakland is just 25th in total defense. On the flip side, the Pats are No. 30 in total defense and last against the pass. Derek Carr's 94 passing touchdowns through his first four seasons is nearly twice as many as the next-closest Raiders QB had in his first four seasons as Tom Flores had 54 TD passes in his first four. Last season in Mexico City, Carr passed for 295 yards and 3 TDs with an INT in the Raiders' 27-20 victory over the Texans.  Turnovers are the key for the Raiders: They are 1-5 when losing the turnover battle this season and 3-0 when breaking even or winning it. The Patriots will play an international game for the third time after playing in London in 2009 and 2012 at Wembley Stadium. The Patriots beat the Tampa Bay Buccaneers 35-7 at Wembley Stadium on Oct. 25, 2009 and then beat the St. Louis Rams, 45-7, on Oct. 28, 2012.

  • Over is 7-3 in Patriots last 10 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 4-1 in Raiders last 5 vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Over 53.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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