NFL Week 11 Pick: Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 8:16 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 8:16 PM UTC

Back in August, who would have though the best matchup in Week 11 of the 2017 season would be Rams at Vikings? Survivor Pick: Minnesota.

Los Angeles Rams at Minnesota Vikings (-2.5, 46.5)

Not only are the Rams and Vikings both 7-2 and atop their respective divisions, they are two of the best ATS teams in the NFL this season at 6-3 each. Mike Zimmer took over as Vikings coach in 2014 and Minnesota is 39-19 ATS since, the best mark in the NFL. With the Eagles rolling along at 8-1, I have a tough time seeing the loser of this game getting a top two seed in the NFC playoffs and a first-round bye. Plus, you still have to factor in the New Orleans Saints (7-2) and Carolina Panthers (7-3). Including this game, the Rams have the second-toughest schedule remaining. They lead the NFL with a plus-134 point differential, but they'll play four of the six teams that follow them in that stat.  The Rams' remaining opponents have a combined .609 winning percentage. The Falcons ranked first in strength of schedule after Week 10 action with an opponent winning percentage of .619. The Vikings have been good at home this year with just one SU and ATS loss. Then again, L.A. is unbeaten on the road. I’m going Minnesota here because of the 10 a.m. Pacific time start.

  • Rams are 3-10-1 ATS in their last 14 vs. NFC.
  • Vikings are 21-6 ATS in their last 27 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Vikings -2.5Best Line Offered: BetDSI

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How good has second-year Rams QB Jared Goff been? In last week’s blowout win over Houston, he completed 25 of 37 passes for 355 yards (career high) with three touchdowns and no interceptions for a 125.4 passer rating. Goff became the first player in franchise history to pass for at least 300 yards and three touchdowns with no interceptions in consecutive games. The Rams average a league-high 32.9 points per game. The Vikings defense has held opponents to 294.6 yards per game (fifth in the NFL) and 18.3 points per game (tied for fifth in the NFL). Meanwhile, Case Keenum continues to play way over his head for the Vikings, throwing four TD passes in last week’s shootout win over Washington.  The Vikings have eight scoring drives of 80-plus yards in 2017, four more than they totaled in all of 2016. WR Adam Thielen has the most games with 90-plus yards (five) in the NFL and is tied for first in the NFL for most games with five-plus receptions (nine). Thielen, who was not drafted out of Minnesota State in 2013, has three career games with at least 150 receiving yards, the most among active players who went undrafted. Adam Thielen!

  • Under is 9-3 in Rams last 12 vs. a team with a winning record.
  • Under is 19-7 in Vikings last 26 vs. a team with a winning record.
Free NFL Pick: Under 46.5Best Line Offered: GT Bets

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