NFL Week 11 Pick: Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 8:48 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 8:48 PM UTC

It’s a pair of vastly disappointing 3-6 teams basically playing out the string Sunday in the Mile High City. But since someone has to win … Survivor Pick: Denver.

Cincinnati Bengals at Denver Broncos (-2.5, 39.5)

Denver has dominated this series all-time, leading 21-9. They have played each of the past three seasons, the last two Broncos wins. It was 29-17 in Week 3 last year in Cincinnati. Trevor Siemian made history that day by throwing for 312 yards and four touchdowns without a pick. No NFL quarterback had thrown for 300 yards with four touchdowns and no interceptions in their road debut – ever! Two of those scores went to Emmanuel Sanders, who caught nine passes for 117 yards. Of course, Siemian is now on the Denver bench. Andy Dalton threw for 206 yards and a pick. Jeremy Hill rushed for two scores. Hill barely played this year and is now done for the season following ankle surgery. The Broncos have one of the NFL’s worst ATS marks this year at 2-6-1 but the Bengals are 0-10 in their past 10 trips to the Mile High City and haven't won in Denver since 1975. I don’t like either offense here, but Denver has a better defense and is home so that’s enough to give 2.5 points.

  • Bengals are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in November.
  • Broncos are 10-4 ATS in their last 14 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Broncos -2.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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The Broncos have lost five straight games and are usually way down by the end of the first quarter as they are being outscored 55-9 in the first 15 minutes during that skid. First-year coach Vance Joseph promised to evaluate all areas of the team following Sunday night’s 41-16 home rout to New England. Somehow, the Broncos gave up 24 points on special teams. They had a muffed punt, had a blocked punt, allowed a 103-yard kickoff return for a touchdown and had a 12-men-on-the-field penalty that negated a Patriots punt. That’s just bad coaching. Joseph is sticking with Brock Osweiler at QB. He threw for 221 yards, a touchdown and an interception against New England. Joseph was asked if the thought of starting Paxton Lynch this week but said the second-year player was still recovering from a shoulder injury and isn't throwing deep passes yet. The Bengals have the third-worst turnover differential in the NFL this season (minus-9) and are 30th in the league in converting third downs. In the last two games in Jacksonville and Tennessee the foe has run a combined 75 more plays, the biggest gap in club history. The Bengals will have top linebacker Vontaze Burfict in a minor surprise as he was not suspended after being ejected last Sunday for making contact with an official during the loss to the Titans.

  • Under is 11-3 in Bengals last 14 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 5-1 in Broncos last 6 vs. a team with a losing record.
Free NFL Pick: Under 39.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

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