NFL Week 11 Pick: Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, September 27, 2017 8:14 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 27, 2017 8:14 PM UTC

It’s a matchup of Super Bowl-winning coaches on Sunday as Baltimore’s John Harbaugh and Green Bay’s Mike McCarthy match wits at Lambeau. Survivor Pick: Green Bay.

Baltimore Ravens at Green Bay Packers (+2, 38)

It still seems so weird to see the Packers as home underdogs – of course, that’s because Aaron Rodgers is out perhaps the rest of the season with that broken right collarbone. This past Sunday, Green Bay was an underdog against Chicago for the first time in nine years but won 23-16 at Soldier Field, the team’s first victory since Rodgers went down Week 6 at Minnesota. Backup QB Brett Hundley played pretty well against a good defense, completing 18 of 25 for 212 yards and a score. It was the Packers’ eighth straight win in Chicago including postseason. Baltimore comes out of its bye week at 4-5 and as a fringe wild-card contender in the AFC. The Ravens are just one game back of Buffalo for that final wild-card spot. Baltimore is 0-3 all-time at Lambeau and never had been favored there. The Ravens are 7-2 coming off byes under coach John Harbaugh.

  • Ravens are 7-3 ATS in their last 10 games following a bye week.
  • Packers are 2-5 ATS vs. a team with a losing record.
Free NFL Pick: Ravens -2Best Line Offered: Intertops

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The Packers could really be short-handed at running back as Ty Montgomery sat out the second half of Sunday's win over the Bears because of a rib injury, and Aaron Jones hurt his knee in the first quarter. The rookie Jones had been a revelation. While Montgomery might play here, Jones is going to miss 6-3 weeks with an MCL injury. The former UTEP star was hurt on the opening drive against the Bears when his right knee appeared to get caught underneath him as he was tackled by linebacker Sam Acho. Jones was the Packers' leading rusher on the season with 370 yards on 70 carries (a 5.3-yard average) and has had two 100-yard games since he was inserted into the lineup in Week 4. Fourth-round rookie Jamaal Williams likely would be the primary ball-carrier if Montgomery is out. The Ravens' remaining seven opponents have combined for a 30-38 record (.441), which is one of the easiest schedules for the final two months of the regular season. Baltimore QB Joe Flacco is averaging just 5.3 yards per attempt, the lowest average among qualifying quarterbacks and a yard lower than his previous career-low. The Ravens are also last in the league with 15 pass plays of 20 yards or more.

  • Under is 7-2 in Ravens last 9 games following a bye week.
  • Under is 4-1 in Ravens last 5 games in November.
Free NFL Pick: Under 38Best Line Offered: JustBet

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