NFL Week 11 Pick: Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Matthew Jordan

Wednesday, November 15, 2017 7:10 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 15, 2017 7:10 PM UTC

It’s the rubber match between the Falcons and Seahawks as it’s their third meeting in about a calendar year. The home team won the first two. Survivor Pick: Seattle.

Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks (-3, 45)

Of course, Atlanta head coach Dan Quinn is Seattle’s former defensive coordinator, leaving the Seahawks the day after their crushing last-second loss to New England in the Super Bowl. These teams split last year, with the Falcons covering in both. It was 26-24 at CenturyLink Field as Seattle rallied from a 24-17 deficit midway through the fourth quarter. Steven Hauschka won it on a 44-yard field goal with 1:57 to go. The NFC divisional round title game at the old Georgia Dome was never much in doubt as the Falcons rolled 36-20. Matt Ryan threw for 338 and three scores. This year’s Falcons team isn’t near as good as that one and has been one of the worst teams at covering, going 3-6 ATS. Atlanta is 1-4 ATS on the road. Both teams will be missing key players. Seattle Pro Bowl cornerback Richard Sherman, probably the best in the business, is done for the year with a ruptured Achilles tendon suffered in last Thursday’s loss at Arizona. That definitely hurts Seattle’s Super Bowl chances. Atlanta probably will be without Pro Bowl running back Devonta Freeman as he suffered a concussion in last week’s win over Dallas.

  • Falcons are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games overall.
  • Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 Monday games.
Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -2.5 (buy down from 3)Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

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Since the Seahawks drafted Sherman in the fifth round in 2011, their defense has ranked first in first in yards allowed per game (300.1) and first in passing yards allowed per game (203.6). I probably would have gone under this total before that injury. Now Julio Jones could go wild on that secondary. Jones vs. Sherman is one of the best individual matchups in the NFL. Jones and Sherman each entered the league the same year. In four career games against the Seahawks [including playoffs], Jones has 30 receptions for 392 yards and two touchdowns on 42 targets almost always guarded by Sherman. The Seahawks have won five of their past six games and they lead the NFC in passing offense (267.8 yards per game). Russell Wilson is the NFL’s top-ranked passer in the fourth quarter with a 135.2 passer rating with 12 touchdowns and one pick. As good as Freeman is, the Falcons shouldn’t miss him too much because Tevin Coleman is good enough to start for many teams in the NFL. I expect something like 28-24 here.

  • Over is 8-2-1 in Falcons last 11 games following a straight up win.
  • Over is 6-1 in the last 7 meetings.
Free NFL Pick: Over 45Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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