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NFL Week 11: Monday Night Prop Stop

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NFL Week 11: Monday Night Prop Stop
Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 15, 2020 in Charlotte, North Carolina. Grant Halverson/Getty Images/AFP

Los Angeles Rams vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Monday, November 23, 2020 – 08:15 PM ET at Raymond James Stadium

Teams

  • Los Angeles Rams (6-3)
  • Tampa Bay Buccaneers (7-3)

What to Expect

For Monday night’s matchup between the Rams and the Buccaneers, I think that final score will either be close to the spread or that the Rams will win. Both teams have nearly identical records, so it is hard to imagine that the Rams will be steamrolled by the upstart Bucs. While I am tempted to bet on LA as +170 moneyline underdogs, I think the best bets on Monday night’s game are the player prop bets. Tampa is a popular team, and the result is that win or lose, you have to pay a premium to bet over on any of their player props.

The first Tampa Bucs player that I am targeting is quarterback Tom Brady. As a 43-year-old quarterback, Brady is less than 20 years away from being eligible for an AARP membership. Even though he is doing well this season, it is a stretch to think that he is likely to get over 294.5 passing yards against a stout Rams passing defense. That is why I am betting on Brady having under 294.5 passing yards at -114 odds on BetOnline.

Next to Tom Brady the 2nd most overhyped player on Tampa’s team is wide receiver Antonio Brown. Like many in the NFL, Brown has immense talent, but his behavioral problems have kept him in the news over the last few years. As a result, there is an intrigue surrounding Brown and that causes bettors to take the over on his props. That is one of the reasons why I am betting on Brown having under 58.5 receiving yards at -114 on BetOnline.

Tom Brady #12 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers on November 02, 2020 in East Rutherford, New Jersey. Sarah Stier/Getty Images/AFP

Tom Brady (TB) Under 294.5 Passing Yards -114 (BetOnline)

Tom Brady is one of the most widely known NFL players. Brady has a beautiful wife, six super bowl rings, and has been involved in a few ethically questionable situations in his career. But bettors should not care about Brady being a villain, they should care about making money. Usually it is smart to go against the public, but the public that may dislike Brady loves to bet on his player prop totals going over. That is why his passing yards total is overinflated at 294.5 yards.

In ten games this season, Brady has only thrown for 300 or more passing yards in three games. Much must go right for Brady in order for him to get at least 295 passing yards. He must continue attempting around 40 passing attempts per game, and his receivers have to continue catching the ball as Brady has a 66% completion percentage.

The Rams hold opposing quarterbacks to a 64.2% competition percentage, which is the 11th best in the NFL. More impressively, LA allows only 199.7 passing yards per game which is the 3rd lowest amount in the league. Based on Brady’s past play and the Rams passing defense, I think that he throws for fewer than 294.5 passing yards.

Brady Passing Yards-114
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Antonio Brown #81 of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers. Photo by Mike Ehrmann/Getty Images/AFP

Antonio Brown (TB) Under 58.5 Receiving Yards -114 (BetOnline)

If you are looking for how to read the NFL odds, you want to look at the player props for quarterbacks and wide receivers. If a quarterback has a good game, his wide receivers are likely to have a good game. If a quarterback has a bad game, then his wide receivers are likely to perform poorly. Tom Brady’s passing yards total is overinflated, and as a result the Bucs receiving yard totals are overinflated. The most overinflated of the Bucs is Antonio Brown.

Brown is one of the most well-known players in the NFL not just because of his immense talent, but because of his off the field conduct. He is certainly a talented player, but I have a hard time seeing how he goes over his 58.5 receiving yards total. Brown has only played in two games for Tampa this season so it too early to tell what his role will be in the Bucs offense. There are many other mouths to feed in Tampa’s offense including Leonard Fournette, Chris Godwin, Mike Evans, and Rob Gronkowski.

In Brown’s last game, he had seven receptions and 69 passing yards against a weak Carolina defense. Brown had his seven receptions off only eight targets. It is unrealistic to expect brown to have a catch rate that good going forward, particularly against a Rams defense that allows a completion percentage of only 64.2%. That is why you should bet on Brown having under 58.5 receiving yards on Monday night.

Brown Receiving Yards-114
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