NFL Week 11: Largest Totals & Picks

Matthew Jordan

Friday, November 14, 2014 9:48 PM GMT

An ugly Week 10 on the largest totals picks as I was 1-3. I worried too much about the weather in Green Bay, for example, and the Packers went 'over' the total by themselves vs. Chicago.  Here are the Pinnacle highest Week 11 totals on NFL odds.

New England Patriots at Indianapolis Colts (total 57.5 at 5Dimes)
This is the highest total of the 2014 season thus far and probably won't be eclipsed. Yet some might argue it's still too low. Both the Patriots and Colts come off the bye and are lighting up scoreboards. New England has won five straight games, not scoring less than 27 in that streak and topping 40 three times. Overall the Pats are averaging 40.2 points per game in the run; and it's not like all five wins were against lousy teams. The Bengals, Bills and Broncos are all  playoff contenders. Tom Brady is now up to +400 on Bovada's NFL MVP odds. He has 18 touchdown passes and one pick in the past five games, never throwing for less than 261 and topping 330 three times. Not to be outdone is Andrew Luck, who is +300 on NFL odds to win his first (but almost surely not last) MVP award. Indy has won six of seven and Luck has thrown for at least 300 yards in all seven. Two more and he ties Drew Brees' consecutive games mark. Luck actually has better numbers for the most part away from home. Obviously weather won't be a factor as this is New England's only dome game of the season. These teams met in the divisional round last season in Foxboro and New England won 43-22, picking Luck off four times. Brady was quiet because the Patriots were killing the Colts on the ground.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' That's a huge number, but how can this not be a shootout? The 'over' is 4-1 in New England's past five off a bye week. It is 9-2 in Indy's past 11 overall.

Philadelphia Eagles at Green Bay Packers (54.5 at The Greek)
I'll give you the weather first, but I'm not going to base my decision on it like last week. Looks to be around 30 degrees at kickoff with a 30 percent chance of snow. Aaron Rodgers is pretty good in the cold you might say. Last week against Chicago he had a ridiculous six touchdown passes in the first half, an NFL record, as Green Bay led 42-0 at the break. The Packers finished with 55 points, tying a franchise record at Lambeau. Rodgers easily could have broken the NFL game record of eight TDs if he wanted to, but the Packers pulled him instead of risking injury. Rodgers is completing 68.5 percent of his passes for 15 scores and no picks at home. The Packers are averaging 41.5 points at home and have scored 30-plus points in five straight regular-season home games (dating to last year) for only the second time in franchise history (2011). So assuming Green Bay scores at least 30, can the Eagles get 25 to warrant an 'over' pick? Philly leads the NFL in non-offensive touchdowns and added two more Monday night in a blowout of Carolina. QB Mark Sanchez made his first start since the end of the 2012 season and was solid in his Eagles debut, going 20 of 37 for 332 yards and two touchdowns in one of the best starts of his career. But that was at home.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' It is 9-4 in the Eagles' past 13 road games and 7-0 in Green Bay's last seven following a win of at least two touchdowns.

Denver Broncos at St. Louis Rams (50.5 at Bet365)
Surprise, surprise, a game involving Denver has one of the highest totals. It's the third straight game a Broncos matchup has had a total north of 50 and Denver has gone 'over' all of them. In fact, the past six Denver games have gone 'over.' The Broncos have scored at least 31 points in their past five wins, while Peyton Manning is the +200 NFL MVP favorite on Bovada's NFL props. Manning has thrown for 778 yards and seven touchdowns in the past two games, but he also has two picks in each. This is Denver's only dome game of the season so that could be an adjustment, although of course Manning played all his home games in a dome while with the Colts. Obviously the crowd wasn't screaming when he was on offense then like they will be in St. Louis. The Rams are a hard team to gauge, with wins against Seattle and San Francisco in the past four games but also double-digit losses to the Chiefs and Cardinals. Shaun Hill replaces Austin Davis as the Rams' starting QB. Hill hasn't started since Week 1. Davis played well for a while replacing him, but then started turning the ball over. In his nine games, Davis threw four interceptions and lost two fumbles that were returned for touchdowns. Hill might not have as much upside but should take care of the ball better.

NFL free pick: 'Over.' It is 4-0 in Denver's past four after a win. It is 8-1 in the Rams' past nine November games.