Week 11 NFL Free Picks: Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

free picks

David Schwab

Saturday, November 18, 2017 2:19 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 18, 2017 2:19 PM GMT

Two teams desperately trying to keep pace in their respective division title race clash this Monday night in the Pacific Northwest with the 5-4 Atlanta Falcons going on the road to tangle with the 6-3 Seattle Seahawks. Kickoff for this NFC tilt from CenturyLink Field is set for 8:30 p.m. on NBC.

Free NFL Picks: UNDER 45
Best Odds Available at Heritage

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 Atlanta Falcons at Seattle Seahawks

Pointspread: Seattle -3
Total Line: 44.5

Atlanta at Seattle Game Overview

The defending NFC Champs are at a crossroads in their season in light of their precarious position to even make the playoffs this year. At 5-4 straight-up, Atlanta needs quite a few things to go its way in the second half of the season. At 3-6 against the spread, this has been a tough team to go with all year long. The Falcons are 1-4 ATS on the road and the total has stayed UNDER in five of their last six games overall.

Matt Ryan threw for 215 yards and two scores in Atlanta’s 27-7 victory against Dallas last Sunday as a three-point home favorite. Most of the credit for that win should go to a defense that posted eight sacks while holding the Cowboys to just 233 yards of total offense. The Falcons are eighth in the NFL in total yards per game while averaging 21.9 points. Defensively, they are 10th in points allowed (19.9) and seventh in yards allowed (311.9).

The Seahawks kept pace in the NFC West with last Sunday’s 22-16 victory against Arizona. The game ended as a PUSH and the total stayed UNDER the closing 40-point line. Seattle is 3-5-1 ATS this season and the total has stayed UNDER in six of its first nine games. It has gone 1-3 ATS in its first four home games with the total evenly split at 2-2.

Seattle’s 267.8 passing yards per game is the second-highest average in the NFL, but their running game falls to 22nd with an average of 100.7 yards per game. Russell Wilson has thrown for 2,543 yards and 19 touchdowns while also leading the team in rushing with 290 yards on 51 carries. The Seahawks still live and die with their defense so the loss of All-Pro cornerback Richard Sherman for the season with a torn Achilles in last week’s game could deal a huge blow to a unit that is 13th in the league against the pass.

Atlanta at Seattle Game Betting Trends

 -The Falcons have gone a perfect 4-0 ATS in their last four Monday night games, but they have failed to cover in their last five Week 11 games. The total has stayed UNDER in their last four games against a team with a SU winning record.

 -The Seahawks are 8-2-1 ATS in their last 11 games played on Monday night, but they fall to 3-8 ATS in their last 11 games following a SU win. The total has stayed UNDER in their last six conference games.

 -The home team is 3-1 SU in the last four meetings with the series tied 2-2 ATS. The total has gone OVER in three of those four games.

Atlanta at Seattle NFL Pick

Atlanta is coming off one of its most important victories of the year, but its past inconsistency on both sides of the ball is hard to ignore. Seattle has also had its issues playing true to form week after week which makes picking a side in the matchup a virtual toss-up. I do like the generous 44.5-point total line at SBR Odds to set up a winning NFL picks on the UNDER in this game.

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