NFL Week 11 Betting: Watch Out For Public Patriots In San Francisco

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 8:05 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 15, 2016 8:05 PM UTC

After a tough loss at home against Seattle, the angry New England Patriots are expected to be a popular NFL pick this Sunday as double-digit favorites when they visit the awful San Francisco 49ers. But popular doesn't mean sharp.

Patriots Off Rare Home Loss

So did you see that game? The Seattle Seahawks put a little added mustard on those haymakers they threw at the New England Patriots, winning 31-24 as 7.5-point road dogs on Sunday Night Football. Tom Brady threw his first interception of the season and the Legion of Boom kept him from finding the end zone. Revenge for Super Bowl XLIX? Revenge for what happened on Election Day? You be the judge. 

In the meantime, the Patriots have yet another burr up their saddle and they'll get to take out their frustrations on the San Francisco 49ers this Sunday (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS). New England is a 13.5-point road chalk on the NFL odds board and our consensus reports show a ton of early action on the Pats – but we're inclined to take the road less traveled and recommend the Niners for your Week 11 NFL picks.

Season Record: 17-14-1 ATS, 4-8 totals


One Kaepernick > Two Bradys

Just in case you're new around here, a quick reminder: Contrarian betting is where the gold is at. Most casual fans bet on the teams they like, thus giving them something extra to cheer for on game day. The Patriots (7-2 SU and ATS) are a “public” team with a lot of casual fans. The Niners (1-8 SU, 2-7 ATS) are the anti-Patriots, and QB Colin Kaepernick is the anti-Brady. But once all that money comes in on New England this weekend, the lines will move and make San Francisco a value pick at +14 or better. Heck, they might even be a value pick right now.

Colin Kaepernick more than doubled Tom Brady's fantasy total today. Anyone predict that one? So unpredictable!

— Michael Fabiano (@Michael_Fabiano) November 14, 2016

Yes, that happened in Week 10. The Niners also covered last week; we had them as 14.5-point road dogs against another public team, the Arizona Cardinals, and the 49ers almost won the game outright before losing 23-20. Kaepernick was good for two touchdowns, one rushing and one passing, and he went pick-free. Let's stick with the program and give the Niners another shot with the overvalued Patriots coming to town.

Free NFL Pick: Niners +13.5 (-130)Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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