NFL Week 11 Betting: Early Seahawks Money Drives Line Versus Eagles

Seattle Seahawks players celebrating

Jason Lake

Wednesday, November 16, 2016 4:52 PM UTC

Wednesday, Nov. 16, 2016 4:52 PM UTC

If you want to back the Seattle Seahawks on NFL picks in Week 11 action, you better bet them now before Seatle hits the magic number of -7 for Sunday's game with the visiting Philadelphia Eagles.

Season Record: 17-14-1 ATS, 4-8 Totals

There's never been a better time to buy. The Seahawks (6-2-1 SU, 5-4 ATS) stuffed the New England Patriots at the goal line last Sunday night to win 31-24, cashing in as 7.5-point road dogs. As we go to press, Seattle is a 6-point home chalk for this Sunday against Philadelphia 5-4 SU and ATS), and with all this early money coming in on the 'Hawks they might be -7 the next time you look at the NFL odds board.

This is why it's good to shop early. The sharps are definitely on Seattle's side, at least at this price; our consensus reports show roughly two-thirds support for the Seahawks, although Philadelphia is the near-unanimous choice at +245 on the moneyline. We suspect the betting public will join in, too, after the 'Hawks beat the Patriots. If you want Seattle on your NFL picks this week, now is the time before that spread gets any bigger.

Tight Lines Blow Away

Seven points isn't just a magic number in this case – it's also a very tight line. The fine folks at ESPN statistical sister site FiveThirtyEight, who are clearly much better at interpreting data than most people, have Seattle winning Sunday's matchup (4:25 p.m. ET, CBS) 73 percent of the time for an Elo-based spread of -7. Anything below that should have at least some betting value.

We've grown a bit skeptical of the Eagles, though. They did manage to beat the Atlanta Falcons 24-15 last week as 2-point home faves, but they're still 2-3 SU and ATS since right tackle Lane Johnson was suspended for 10 games. Plus, cornerback Nolan Carroll is in league protocol after suffering a concussion against Atlanta.

#Eagles best cornerback, Nolan Carroll, is down.

— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) November 13, 2016

The Eagles have supported rookie QB Carson Wentz with the best defense and special teams in the NFL, according to the efficiency stats at Football Outsiders. If Carroll isn't available Sunday, that ball of green yarn might completely unravel.

Free NFL Pick: Seahawks -6 (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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