NFL Week 10 Picks: Wise Guy Plays & Public Leans

Swinging Johnson

Sunday, November 9, 2014 3:17 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2014 3:17 PM UTC

Last week this NFL handicapper's "late lean wise guy plays" went 3-0 in NFL picks. Find out which fluctuations in the NFL odds have caught his attention in Week 10.

Steelers vs. Jets             
I'm not sure what the oddsmakers were thinking when they initially offered the NFL odds in this one. They made the Steelers only 2 ½ point favorites after their towering performance against divisional rivals the Baltimore Ravens as they take on a Jets team that has been in disarray since the start of the season. Now don't get me wrong, this game stinks to the high heavens as you know the Steelers are not nearly as dominant as their recent three-game win streak (all ATS covers in NFL odds) would indicate. But even in light of that, the offshores hanging the NFL odds have to know that the public will be double downing on the Steelers all day long against a Jets team that has covered only once all season!

Predictably the NFL odds have risen faster than a teenage boy at a nude cheerleader competition. We are now looking at the visiting Steelers as 3 ½ to 4 point betting favorites in virtually all of the majors with the exception of Bovada who is now boldly offering the boys from Pittsburgh at -6 in NFL odds. I think Joe Q. Public will get crushed on this game as it looks too good to be true. This smacks of a completely public move with the wise guys waiting for the odds to rise even higher before they pounce on the home team getting north of four points.

NFL Picks: Public Lean on Pittsburgh


49'ers vs. Saints
Saying the Niners have disappointed is like pointing out VCR's have really gone out of style. Yeah, tell me something I don't know. The New Orleans Saints, coming off a Thursday night affair two weeks ago in which they bested the Panthers 28-10 in Carolina, have had 10 days to prepare for this one. The Niners suffered a miserable beating at the hands of Peyton Manning and the Denver Broncos but returned home eyeballing a "gimme" against the Rams. Not so fast as St. Louis upset the 49'ers on their home turf 13-10.

So here we are with a presumably well-rested Saints squad looking to exploit a suddenly vulnerable 49'ers faction. The NFL odds in this game opened with the home team laying a mere 2 ½ points but that has ballooned to anywhere from 4 ½ to as high as 6 at Bovada. I realize we commonly associate wise guy plays with underdogs but in this case I believe the sharps are exploiting a weak number. But how high does it have to go before someone (say Billy Walters?) decides to buy it all back and get the Niners at a terrific number? As of now, the Saints remain the sharp side.

NFL Picks: Wise Guy Lean on Saints


Giants vs. Seahawks
I'm not sure what to make of this game. The Seahawks opened as 7 ½ point favorites in NFL odds but quickly climbed the ladder to as high as 10 in sportsbooks like and Bovada who are known for shading favorites. But most of the offshores are dealing Seattle at 8 (Pinnacle), 8 ½ or 9 point betting favorites.

Once again this doesn't smack of sharp action but rather the knee-jerk response of an overeager public looking to feast upon the foibles of Tom Coughlin and his Big Blue crew against a powerhouse like the Seahawks who clearly coasted in their last game against the lowly Raiders.

NFL Picks: Public Lean on Seattle

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