NFL Week 10 Picks- New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Patriots QB Tom Brady

David Schwab

Saturday, November 11, 2017 7:57 PM GMT

Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017 7:57 PM GMT

The 6-2 New England Patriots return to action following last week’s bye looking to pick up from where they left off in a Sunday night prime time battle in the AFC against the fading 3-5 Denver Broncos. Game time on NBC from Sports Authority Field at Mile High is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET).

New England Patriots vs Denver Broncos

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Free NFL Pick: Patriots -7.5Best Line Offered: at BetOnline Game Overview

Coming off that bye week, the Patriots bring a straight-up four-game winning streak into Mile High while going 3-1 against the spread. Along with an overall record of 6-2 (4-4 ATS), the total has stayed UNDER in the last four games after going OVER in their first four outings of the year. New England has closed as a favorite in each of its first eight games and it has a 2-1 record ATS in three previous road games.

While the Patriots still have one of the most productive offenses in the league in terms of average yards gained (411.1) and points scored (27.0), it has been their defense that deserves a good deal of the credit for this current winning streak. New England’s scoring average has actually dropped to 21.8 points during this four-game run, while the defense has held opponents to 17 points or less in each of the four victories.

Denver’s current losing streak reached four games both SU and ATS with last week’s 51-23 collapse against Philadelphia as a seven-point road underdog. The Broncos fell to 3-5 SU and a costly 2-5-1 ATS. The total went way OVER the 41-point closing line in that lopsided loss and it has now gone OVER in five of their first eight games this year. Denver is still above .500 at home ATS at 2-1-1, but it fell to 1-2 ATS when closing as an underdog.

First it was Trevor Siemian under center followed by Brock Osweiler at quarterback, but the end result has been pretty much the same. With fewer than 24 points scored in each of their last six games, the Broncos are now ranked 22nd in the NFL in scoring with 18.8 points per game. This offense is 18th in the league in total yards with issues in both the passing game and on the ground. Until last Sunday’s loss, the defense was able to keep Denver it in the game in those first three losses by giving up an average of 24.3 PPG.

 

New England at Denver Game Betting Trends

 --The Patriots have covered in 10 of their last 13 games following a SU win and they have a 10-2 record ATS in their last 12 games played on the road. The total has stayed UNDER in 10 of their last 14 road games.

 --The Broncos are 2-5 ATS in their last seven games following a SU loss and they have gone 2-6-1 ATS in their last nine conference games. The total has stayed UNDER in eight or their last 11 games coming off both a SU and ATS loss.

 --The home team in this AFC matchup has covered the spread in seven of the last eight games and the total has stayed UNDER in five of the last seven games played at Mile High. 

 

New England at Denver NFL Picks

You almost have to ride the hot hand in this one, especially coming off a bye. New England appears to be primed for another big second-half run and Denver is probably one more loss away from riding out the string the rest of the season. The Patriots smell blood in the water to the point where my top NFL pick for Sunday night is to lay the 7.5 points at SBR Odds and take the road favorites ATS.

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