NFL Week 10 Picks- Miami Dolphins at Carolina Panthers

David Schwab

Saturday, November 11, 2017 8:19 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 11, 2017 8:19 PM UTC

Monday night’s prime time matchup in Week 10 of the NFL season is an inter-conference clash between the 4-4 Miami Dolphins and the 5-3 Carolina Panthers with both teams looking to keep pace in their respective division title race. Game time from Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte is set for 8:30 p.m. (ET) on NBC.

Miami Dolphins vs Carolina Panthers

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Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +10Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes


Game Overview

The Dolphins slipped to 4-4 straight-up and 3-3-2 against the spread with back-to-back losses to Baltimore on the road and to Oakland at home in their last two outings. Last Sunday’s 27-24 loss to the Raiders ended as a PUSH and it also went OVER the 44.5-point closing line. It has gone OVER in Miami’s last three games after staying UNDER in its first five games this season. The Dolphins go back on the road this week at 2-2 ATS in four previous road games.

With Jay Cutler back under center, Miami’s offense showed some signs of life after getting shutout in the loss to Baltimore with Matt Moore getting the start. Cutler completed 34 of his 42 passing attempts for 311 yards and three touchdowns against zero interceptions in a losing cause. The big issue in that loss was a defense that could not make the stops when it had to. This unit is ranked 10th in the NFL in total yards allowed (315.4), but it falls to 17th in points allowed (22.4).

Carolina stayed on pace in the tight NFC South race with back-to-back division wins against Tampa Bay on the road and Atlanta at home in its last two games to improve to 6-3 SU with a 5-3-1 record ATS. They total has stayed UNDER in the Panthers’ last three outings after going OVER in their previous four games. They are 1-2-1 ATS at home this season and 1-3-1 ATS in five games closing as favorites.

On an offense that is 21st in the NFL in yards gained (313.1) and 24th in points scored (18.7), Cam Newton continues to play a major role in this team’s overall fortunes. He has completed 62.4 percent of his first 287 attempts for 1,978 yards. However, his 10 touchdown throws are overshadowed by 11 interceptions and 23 sacks. Newton remains the team’s second-leading rusher with 341 yards and four scores on 69 carries. The defense still carries this team with a points-allowed average of 17.7 that is fourth in the league.

 Game Betting Trends

 --The Dolphins have a 3-1-1 record ATS in their last five November games, but they have failed to cover in their last seven games played on a Monday night. The total has gone OVER in seven of their last nine Monday games.

 --The Panthers have failed to cover in four of their last five home games and they are 3-7-1 ATS in their last 11 games after failing to cover in their previous contest. The total has stayed UNDER or ended as a PUSH in six of their last eight games at home.

 -- Going back over the last five games between the two, Miami has covered each time with the total staying UNDER in four of those meetings. 

 NFL Pick

There has to be some concern that Miami is letting this season slip away, but desperation has a way of bringing out the best in teams. I am not sold that Carolina deserves to be a 10-point home favorite at SBR Odds given its up and down play this season, so my top NFL pick for Monday night is the Dolphins and the 10 points.

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