NFL Week 10 Pick: New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:19 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:19 PM UTC

I would have bet you anything that the Bucs would finish with more wins than the Jets in 2017. Apparently, I could be dead wrong. Survivor Pick: Tampa Bay.

New York Jets at Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+2.5, 41.5)

There’s literally no good news I can provide about the mega-disappointing Bucs, a team I thought had a good chance to win the NFC South off a nine-win season in 2016. Alas, the defense and special teams have been lousy and QB Jameis Winston has regressed. Winston was pulled from Sunday’s 30-10 loss in New Orleans, Tampa’s fifth straight defeat, with a shoulder injury that’s been bothering him for a few weeks. The Bucs are essentially waiving the white flag on this season as Winston will sit at least the next two games. Bucs head coach Dirk Koetter said that there is no structural damage to Winston's shoulder but an MRI Monday revealed that he did suffer more damage to it when he was sacked by Alex Okafor and Cameron Jordan on Sunday. So it will be journeyman backup Ryan Fitzpatrick. Alas, he likely won’t have star receiver Mike Evans. He was suspended one game Monday for running across the field and drilling the Saints' Marshon Lattimore in the back on Sunday. That skirmish started when Winston -- who was not playing at the time -- pushed Lattimore in the back of his helmet while appearing to suggest that he go back to his own sideline. Evans is appealing, but it’s unlikely that appeal is successful. I’m sorry, I still can’t take the Jets as road favorites, though.

  • Jets are 1-3-1 ATS in their last 5 road games.
  • Buccaneers are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games after accumulating less than 250 total yards in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Bucs +2.5 (buy up to 3)Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Needless to say, my immediate inclination with Tampa missing its two best offensive players is to go under this total. Although I’m not sure the offense will suffer that much with Fitzpatrick in there – he’s not as good as Winston but it might be an upgrade the way Winston has been playing of late and the mistakes that the former Heisman Trophy winner is making. Of course, Fitzpatrick was the Jets’ starter in 2015-16. Now New York’s QB is Josh McCown, who was Tampa’s starter for most of 2014 while Winston was still at Florida State. New York is on extra rest here off a 34-21 home win over Buffalo on Thursday in Week 9. The Jets, who somehow have four wins, snapped a three-game slide in which they held leads in each defeat. New York will also be missing a suspended receiver: Jeremy Kerley received a four-game ban. That should create playing time for rookies ArDarius Stewart and Chad Hansen. Kerley has 22 receptions on 27 targets for a catch percentage of 81.5, which ranks 13th in the league.

  • Under is 4-1 in Jets last 5 vs. a team with a losing record.
  • Under is 6-1 in Buccaneers last 7 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Under 41.5Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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