NFL Week 10 Pick: New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:12 PM UTC

The Saints are a dome team heading to Buffalo in November. That could get ugly weather-wise. It’s the first meeting between the teams in four years. Survivor Pick: Buffalo.

New Orleans Saints at Buffalo Bills (+2.5, 46)

Just one year ago, this would have been a matchup of completely opposite offenses. The Saints were pass-heavy as usual under Drew Brees in 2016 and the Bills were a conservative run-first team. Buffalo hasn’t changed but New Orleans surely has. The Saints have won six straight and are atop the NFC South thanks to their two-headed running back duo of Mark Ingram and Alvin Kamara plus a resurgent defense. The Saints are third team in the Super Bowl era to win its next six games immediately following an 0-2 start. Not that Brees still isn’t great. He completed 81.2 percent of his passes for 263 yards and two scores in Sunday’s 30-10 wipeout of Tampa Bay. Kamara has been a revelation; he had 68 yards and a TD rushing and 84 yards and score receiving. I was dead wrong on the Bills last Thursday at the Jets as they laid a major egg in a 34-21 loss that really wasn’t that close. I’m taking Buffalo here, though as it’s 4-0 at home and the Saints generally aren’t as good outside their dome. Yes, I’m aware that New Orleans is outscoring opponents by 40 points on the road.

  • Saints are 1-7 ATS in their last 8 games on turf.
  • Bills are 3-0-1 ATS in their last 4 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Bills +2.5 (buy up to 3)Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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So we are at the time of the year where we have to check the weather in Buffalo and other cities in cold-weather climates. It looks to be potentially a bit messy with temperatures forecast in the mid-to-high 40s with an afternoon shower possible. Doesn’t appear that it will be cold enough to snow. This should be the Buffalo debut of receiver Kelvin Benjamin, who was a surprise trade acquisition from Carolina last week. Benjamin wasn’t active vs. the Jets just two days after the trade. Benjamin participated in his first full practice Monday. The Bills’ could use a big play guy as their offense ranks 26th overall. Coach Sean McDermott is hoping to get back both tight end Charles Clay (knee) and cornerback E.J. Gaines (hamstring) this week. McDermott both are considered day to day, which gives them a chance to play. That Bills defense will play much better at home than it did vs. the Jets.

  • Under is 4-1 in Saints last 5 games overall.
  • Under is 10-3 in Bills last 13 games in Week 10.
Free NFL Pick: Under 46Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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