NFL Week 10 Pick: New England Patriots at Denver Broncos

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:41 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:41 PM UTC

It’s the marquee matchup of the week as Tom Brady takes on Peyton … wait, Brock Osweiler? Yeah, never mind. Survivor Pick: New England.

New England Patriots at Denver Broncos (+7.5, 46.5)

There has been some talk recently that Patriots coach and first-ballot Hall of Famer Bill Belichick could retire sooner than people think. The Hoodie has 269 career wins, including the postseason, in his 23-year head coaching career with the Browns and Patriots. With a victory at Denver, Belichick would tie another Hall of Famer in Tom Landry (270) for the third-most total wins by a head coach in NFL history. That includes playoffs. Belichick has 243 in the regular season and Landry 250. Don Shula leads with 328 regular-season wins. The Patriots are coming off their bye week and atop the AFC East after a shaky start to the season. Have they fixed things during a four-game winning streak or simply played bad-to-mediocre teams in Tampa Bay, NY Jets, Atlanta and LA Chargers? None of them have a winning record. This is probably the season for Denver as it’s tied for last in the AFC West and on a four-game skid. Brady does often have some trouble in Denver. The Patriots are 10-21 overall in games played in Denver, including 0-4 in postseason games. Pats will win, but that 7 and the hook are too tempting to pass up.

  • Patriots are 2-6 ATS in their last 8 meetings in Denver.
  • Broncos are 4-1 ATS in their last 5 games after allowing more than 30 points in their previous game.
Free NFL Pick: Broncos +7.5Best Line Offered: Sports Interaction

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The Broncos hosted the Patriots last year and New England won 16-3. Brady wasn’t particularly good, nor was Denver QB Trevor Siemian. This won’t be that low-scoring. The Patriots and Broncos will meet for the seventh straight year in the regular season. The Patriots are 5-1 in those games. New England has won 11 straight road games overall. The NFL record is 18 by the 49ers from 1988-90.  Brady owns a 18-10 record in 28 games playing on Sunday Night Football. He has thrown for over 300 yards 13 times. In Brady's last three starts in Denver (two losses), he completed 51 percent of his passes with four touchdowns and two interceptions. It will be Brock Osweiler at quarterback again for Denver – he led a comeback win against the visiting Patriots in the 2015 regular season when Manning was out injured. In his first start of the season last week in a blowout loss to the Eagles, Osweiler finished 19-of-38 for 208 yards, one touchdown and two interceptions. The Broncos would like to start 2016 first-round pick Paxton Lynch, but he’s still not ready off a shoulder injury.

  • Under is 4-0 in Patriots last 4 games overall.
  • Under is 5-2 in the last 7 meetings in Denver.
Free NFL Pick: Under 46.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

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