NFL Week 10 Pick: Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:22 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:22 PM UTC

Who would have guessed the Rams would be one of the biggest favorites on the board in any week of the 2017 NFL season? Survivor Pick: Los Angeles.

Houston Texans at Los Angeles Rams (-11.5, 46.5)

This game was going to be so intriguing if Texans superstar rookie quarterback Deshaun Watson hadn’t torn his ACL on a non-contact play at practice last Thursday. His season is over. Last year, the Texans and Rams were two of the NFL’s worst offensive teams. Watson was off to a record-setting start and Houston entered Week 9 leading the NFL in scoring. But that offense wasn’t close to the same in Sunday’s 20-14 home loss to the Colts with Tom Savage back under center. The Rams now lead the NFL in scoring at 32.9 points per game with Jared Goff taking a huge step forward under first-year coach Sean McVay. He looks like a freaking genius as the Rams already have scored more points (263) than they did in all of 2016 (224). The Rams have scored 40-plus points three times this season. By comparison, they scored 40-plus points just twice times in the previous 10 seasons combined. The last time they scored 40-plus points three times in the same season was in 2001, when they went to the Super Bowl behind Kurt Warner. While I don’t doubt L.A. wins this game, Houston should be able to keep it within 10.

  • Texans are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games following a straight up loss.
  • Rams are 2-8-1 ATS in their last 11 home games.
Free NFL Pick: Texans +11.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193166, "sportsbooksIds":[1275,180,1096,238,1439], "LineTypeId":1, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

How can I not go over this total? The Rams might put up 47 by themselves. They blasted the Giants 51-17 on Sunday behind four touchdowns and 311 yards passing on just 14 completions (in 21 attempts) from Goff. That 146.8 passer rating was Goff’s career high. Prior to Goff, the last quarterback with 300-plus yards and four or more touchdowns on fewer than 15 completions was Kurt Warner in 2000. They're the only two who have had games like that in the past 35 seasons.  The Rams already have three wins of at least 30 points. They are the 11th team in the Super Bowl era to post at least three wins with a margin of victory of 30+ points in the team’s first eight games of a season. Of the previous 10 teams in the Super Bowl era to accomplish the feat, seven advanced to the Super Bowl. The Houston defense is injury-ravaged and already has allowed 36 points to New England, 42 to Kansas City and 41 to Seattle.

  • Over is 5-1 in Texans last 6 games overall.
  • Over is 8-2 in Rams last 10 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Over 46.5Best Line Offered: Intertops

[/]{"component":"oddswidget", "eventId":3193166, "sportsbooksIds":[180,238,169,227,123], "LineTypeId":3, "PeriodTypeId":1 }[/]

comment here