NFL Week 10 Pick: Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:23 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:23 PM UTC

Woulda, coulda, shoulda: These two teams nearly met in last season’s NFC title game, but the Cowboys didn’t do their part. Survivor Pick: Atlanta.

Dallas Cowboys at Atlanta Falcons (-3, 50.5)

The Cowboys were the NFC’s top seed last year and the Falcons No. 2. Dallas lost in a thriller at home to Green Bay in the divisional round or it would have hosted Atlanta in the NFC Championship Game. The Falcons beat Seattle in the divisional round and then hosted Green Bay in the conference title game, shredding the Packers in the last NFL contest at the Georgia Dome. OK, I am sick and f*#&**& tired of talking about whether Ezekiel Elliott will be suspended each week or not. I post this early in the week to get the information and picks out as soon as possible. The NFLPA was to have a hearing Thursday in front of a three-judge panel from the 2nd U.S. Circuit Court of Appeals in New York. Basically, the court will decide whether to grant Elliott an emergency injunction that allows him likely to keep playing the rest of this season. If the court doesn’t, Elliott’s suspension goes into effect immediately and he won’t play. Then again, the court might not decide by Sunday. The NFL is going to win this case eventually, and this should be the last step to affect Elliott for the 2017 season. I don’t happen to think Elliott will be playing Sunday but I think the Cowboys have enough at tailback regardless to at worst cover/push.

  • Cowboys are 11-4 ATS in their last 15 games following a ATS win.
  • Falcons are 0-5 ATS in their last 5 games overall.
Free NFL Pick: Cowboys +3 (buy up to 3.5)Best Line Offered: SportsBetting

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Thanks in large part to Elliott, Dallas has won three straight games by double digits and has scored at least 28 points in each of the past six after not topping 19 in the first two weeks. Dak Prescott also has been largely terrific. He threw for 249 yards and two scores while running for a touchdown in last week’s win over the Chiefs. We all know that Atlanta’s offense hasn’t been close to the same this year as last under new coordinator Steve Sarkisian. The Falcons have lost four of five and haven’t topped 17 points in any of those defeats. Julio Jones, maybe the best receiver in the league, dropped a wide-open TD pass in last week’s 20-17 loss in Carolina. Jones leads the Falcons with 43 catches for 658 yards, although he has just one touchdown. Atlanta averaged a league-best 33.8 points last year and is down to 21.3 ppg. Ten turnovers haven’t helped. The Cowboys aren’t all that great defensively, so I expect the Falcons to approach 30 at home here. It’s just that Dallas might score 33.

  • Over is 12-2 in Falcons last 14 home games.
  • Over is 4-0 in Cowboys last 4 vs. NFC.
Free NFL Pick: Over 50.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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