NFL Week 10 Pick: Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions

Matthew Jordan

Tuesday, September 26, 2017 11:16 PM UTC

Tuesday, Sep. 26, 2017 11:16 PM UTC

The Browns and the Lions, two of the four active franchises to never reach the Super Bowl, square off in perhaps Sunday’s biggest mismatch. Survivor Pick: Detroit.

Cleveland Browns at Detroit Lions (-13, 43.5)

This isn’t something you see every day:  Detroit as this big of a favorite. Since Matthew Stafford was drafted No. 1 overall in 2009, the Lions have only been favored by nine or more points a total of seven times and none of those have come since 2015. In those seven games, the Lions won six but only covered three. The last time Detroit was at least a 12-point favorite was in 1996.  The Lions have covered their past three as at least a 12-point favorite, for what that’s worth. The winless Browns at least didn’t botch a trade or anything this week like they did during the Week 9 bye. What a clown organization. Cleveland sucks against everyone, but it is 1-8 ATS in its past nine against NFC. That’s tied for the second-worst non-conference mark over that span.  Cleveland’s last game before the bye was a 33-16 defeat in London vs. Detroit’s division rival Minnesota. No question the Lions win this week, but this feels like a mini-trap game.

  • Lions are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 home games.
  • Lions are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games following a straight up win.
Free NFL Pick: Browns +13Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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I’m presuming that it will be rookie DeShone Kizer under center again for Cleveland. At this point, there’s really no reason to go to Cody Kessler or Kevin Hogan. Of course, Coach Hue Jackson would like to be starting A.J. McCarron this week, but his front office screwed up that trade with the Bengals. Kizer is by far the lowest-rated QB in the NFL at 51.1. He has three touchdowns and 11 picks. I truly don’t think he would be starting over Brandon Wimbush at Notre Dame this year. The Lions ended their three-game skid with a 30-17 win in Green Bay on Monday night as Stafford threw for 361 yards and two scores. He reached 200 career TD passes and it was his third game in a row with at least 312 yards. When the Lions went ahead on Monday 27–10, it was their largest lead on the road against Green Bay in 35 seasons. Until given a reason to bet an ‘over’ total in a Browns game, I’m going to keep hammering the under with that sorry offense.

  • Under is 11-5 in Browns last 16 games overall.
  • Under is 7-0 in Lions last 7 vs. a team with a losing record.
Free NFL Pick: Under 43.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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