NFL Week 10: Opening Lines And Early Betting Value

Cam Newton

Matthew Jordan

Monday, November 7, 2016 5:47 PM UTC

Monday, Nov. 7, 2016 5:47 PM UTC

By the end of Monday night, every team in the NFL will have played at least half of its regular-season slate. So we should have a good idea of what teams really are or aren't by now. Here are some interesting opening Week 10 NFL lines.

Houston Texans at Jacksonville Jaguars (+1)

I'm a tad surprised Houston is favored on NFL odds here. Have the sportsbooks not seen the Texans away from home this season. They are 0-3 outside of Houston and Brock Osweiler has been the NFL's worst quarterback on the road. Houston has been beaten a combined 85-22 in those games, albeit against very good defensive teams in New England, Denver and Minnesota. Osweiler hasn't thrown for more than 196 yards in any of those games. He has the three of the four lowest passing yardage games in the NFL this season with a minimum 40 attempts, and it's in all those road losses. Osweiler is last in the NFL in yards per attempt at 5.79, and overall Osweiler is completing an ugly 52.4 percent  of his passes with one touchdown, two picks and rating of 58.9 on the road. But Houston does have the advantage of coming off its bye week and thus should be pretty healthy. The Jaguars changed offensive coordinators following their embarrassing Week 8 Thursday night loss in Tennessee, and that offense might have actually regressed on Sunday under former quarterbacks coach Nathaniel Hackett. The Jags dropped their third straight, 19-14 in Kansas City. Blake Bortles completed barely 40 percent of his passes (22-for-41) and the team turned it over four times. Hackett clearly wanted to run the ball more and the Jags finished with season highs in rushing yards (205) and attempts (32).

NFL Early Pick: Texans -1

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Kansas City Chiefs at Carolina Panthers (-3)

It's too bad these 2015 playoff clubs couldn't have met last regular season and the Panthers were of course 15-1 then and Kansas City ended on a 10-game winning streak to get a wild-card spot. As noted above, the Chiefs beat the Jaguars, although not impressively. However, Kansas City was without starting quarterback Alex Smith and running back Spencer Ware due to concussions. It sounds like both are expected back here. But No. 1 receiver Jeremy Maclin is in question. He entered the Jaguars game with a groin injury but did start -- and then aggravated the problem in the first quarter and didn't return. He has 30 catches for 376 yards and two scores. I'm assuming Chiefs tight end Travis Kelce won't be suspended for throwing a towel at an official vs. the Jags and being ejected. He'll be looking at  a fine. Carolina won its second straight Sunday, 13-10 at the Rams. A win is a win, but the Panthers were held to just 244 yards and Cam Newton took another beating with five sacks with Pro Bowl center Ryan Kalil sidelined with a shoulder injury. The Cats are lucky the Rams are inept on offense.

NFL Early Pick: Panthers -3

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Los Angeles Rams at New York Jets (-2.5)

This game looks like a total dog on paper, but it could get moderately interesting depending on the quarterbacks. The Rams lost their fourth straight Sunday and QB Case Keenum struggled again. Why has Coach Jeff Fisher not turned to No. 1 overall pick Jared Goff? Guy hasn't even taken a snap yet even though Keenum clearly isn't an NFL starter. Fans in L.A. chanted for Goff on Sunday, but Fisher continues to say he's sticking with Keenum. Perhaps he changes his mind this week or is waiting for another home game (Week 11) to  make it easier on the rookie. As for the Jets, they lost in Miami on Sunday and Ryan Fitzpatrick was awful again, throwing for 193 yards with two picks. He hurt his knee in the game and left for Bryce Petty but did return. Fitzpatrick has as an MCL sprain. Pretty much everyone in New York is calling on Coach Todd Bowles to give Petty, a fourth-round pick last year, his first start this week. Bowles has said he's sticking with Fitz (if healthy) but he said that a few weeks ago too and then benched him against Baltimore, only for Geno Smith to suffer a season-ending injury.

NFL Early Pick: Jets -2.5

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