NFL Week 10 Betting: Largest Totals & Picks

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, November 9, 2014 5:01 PM UTC

Sunday, Nov. 9, 2014 5:01 PM UTC

It was a solid Week 9 on the largest totals picks as I was 2-1 for the third straight week, so without further ado, here are the highest Week 10 totals on NFL odds.

Chicago Bears vs. Green Bay Packers (53 total)
On the surface, I completely understand why this has the highest total of Week 10 for two teams coming off bye weeks. Green Bay's offense was scorching-hot -- as was Aaron Rodgers -- in a four-game winning streak that ended with a 44-23 loss in Week 8 at New Orleans. Rodgers still threw for 418 yards in that one. Meanwhile, the Chicago defense is pretty atrocious again this season. It gave up a season-high 51 points in a Week 8 blowout loss at New England. Tom Brady picked Chicago apart, with as many touchdown passes as incompletions (five). There's also the fact that Rodgers usually torches the Bears. In Week 4 at Soldier Field, Green Bay won 38-17 behind a near-perfect game from Rodgers as he was 22 of 28 for 302 yards and four scores. It's not like the Bears' offense was stopped much as Chicago had 496 yards, but Jay Cutler turned it over twice. The Packers average 37.0 points per game at home to lead the NFL this season.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under' at BookMaker. How can I go 'under' after all those statistics above? I think the weather could play a role in slowing the offenses down. The forecast is a high of 37 with morning snow showers and winds at 14 mph. The 'under' is 5-1 at sportsbooks in the past six meetings in Green Bay.

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Denver Broncos vs. Oakland Raiders (49 on NFL odds)
I'm not going to touch heavy on this mismatch as it was part of my weekly largest spread picks as I leaned the Broncos -10.5 on NFL picks. I do expect Denver to be very sharp offensively after it wasn't last week in managing only 21 points in the blowout loss to New England. It was the second-fewest points by the Broncos this season. Obviously the concern with going 'over' this total at sportsbooks is if Oakland can score enough to make it viable. The Raiders have topped 14 points just twice. They would love to run the ball and keep Manning off the field, but the Raiders are last in the NFL in rushing. Last year, the Broncos beat Oakland 37-21 in Denver and 34-14 Oakland. That latter game meant nothing for the Broncos and Manning only played a half.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over.' It has hit in Denver's past six after allowing more than 30 points in its previous game. The 'over' is 6-0 in Oakland's past six November games.

San Francisco 49ers vs. New Orleans Saints (49 on NFL betting lines)
Both of these teams are 4-4, but it's clearly a much bigger game for San Francisco. Why? The Saints might be able to win the awful NFC South with a 7-9 mark. The 49ers are already three games behind Arizona  -- with a head-to-head loss to the Cardinals -- and they still have to play Seattle twice (and Arizona again). So it's almost surely wild card or bust for the Niners. Their offense has sputtered in losing two straight, totaling 27 points in defeats at Denver and last week vs. the Rams. Colin Kaepernick has been under siege, getting sacked a combined 14 times in those games after he went down 13 times in the first six games. San Francisco hasn't been able to run the ball, either, of late. As usual, the Saints are a totally different offensive team at home, averaging 33.7 points in three games at the Superdome. The Saints had a season high 44 in their last home game, a blowout of Green Bay.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' New Orleans hasn't faced a defense this good at home yet this year. The 'under' is 5-0 in the Niners' past five after a loss. It is 4-0 in the Saints' past four after a win of more than 14 points.

Carolina Panthers vs. Philadelphia Eagles (48 at sportsbooks)
The big story for the Monday night game is that Eagles quarterback Mark Sanchez will make his first start since the end of the 2012 season with the Jets. Everyone seems to believe that Chip Kelly's offense will make any quarterback look good. It definitely did at Oregon. Sanchez was solid when starter Nick Foles went down early last week with a broken collarbone, going 15 of 22 for 202 yards, two touchdowns and two picks. One would assume a full week of first-team reps would only help Sanchez. The Eagles haven't scored less than 24 points in going 4-0 at home, but those were all with Foles. Carolina was supposed to have a very good defense but has allowed at least 37 points in three straight away non-victories (one tie). Final piece of info you should keep in mind before placing your NFL pick: the weather looks quite nice as it should be high 40s and clear by kickoff.

NFL Free Pick:'Under.' Neither Sanchez nor Cam Newton has been very accurate in his career. The 'under' is 11-2 in Carolina's past 13 vs. the NFC. The 'under' is 5-2 in Philly's past seven after scoring 30 or more points in the previous game.

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