NFL Week 1 Picks: Opening Point Spreads, Totals and Some Thoughts

Kevin Stott

Saturday, April 25, 2015 11:48 PM GMT

Saturday, Apr. 25, 2015 11:48 PM GMT

With the release of the NFL’s full Regular Season schedule earlier this week, sportsbooks will start releasing their Week 1 Point Spreads and Totals, and the world’s largest sportsbook, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook already has numbers posted for the games for that second week in September. So, are there any early odds that jump out and may be worth a pick a half-a-year away?

Introduction
The NFL released its final Regular Season schedule on Tuesday, and with it, the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook here in sometimes beautiful Sin City already has Point Spreads and Totals posted for the NFL’s 14 games for Week 1 action as sportsbooks continue to release NFL odds earlier and earlier each year as the sport has taken on an omnipresent 365-day-a-year persona with the NFL Combine, Free Agency, the NFL Draft, Preseason Football, the Regular NFL Season, and, of course the Super Bowl. (And, I am so sorry Monsieur Pro Bowl, but I have no Love left for you anymore. Go forth and multiply or something juicy.) So, without any Loud Fireworks or Big Blue Spotlights or Obligatory Elephants, here are the Point Spreads and Totals for the Opening Week of NFL from the good folks over at The International House of Kornegay, with very few surprises. But one neat thing about this NFL Week 1 marketplace, is that so much can happen with the NFL Draft and over the coming months that some of these numbers—both sides and totals—could move as many as 2 to possibly 4 points if, say, a guy like San Diego Chargers (30/1 to win Super Bowl, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) QB Philip Rivers were to be traded to the Tennessee Titans (200/1) or something.

In a theoretical scenario like that, with the Tampa Bay Buccaneers (200/1) opening up as 3-point home favorites against the Titans in Week 1 at home in Tampa—with the Buccaneers also possibly having a potential First Round Draft Pick in either Jameis Winston (Florida State) or Marcus Mariota (Oregon) starting for them at QB in his first game as a professional—a Rivers-to-Tennessee trade starting against a Buccaneers rookie QB would have to move the line down at least 3 points to a Pick ‘Em situation in my mind. So, the point here? There could be some real bargains but we don’t know what we don’t know yet before making our NFL picks, Rummy, and tying up any significant amount of money on Week 1 NFL games in late April is probably best left to the Big Boys, as in my experience, really little ends up changing with the Point Spreads and (especially the) Totals between spring and fall. (It’s something to talk about though, right?) And waiting for the Denver Broncos (12/1) to cover a 4-point spread against the Baltimore Ravens (25/1) in April when the Birds are chirping and the Bees are buzzin’ and the Pollen is thick as peanut butter seems an awful lot like putting a nice, Fat Worm on the hook of your fishing pole, casting it at 7:32 a.m. In The Morning, leaving the fishing pole propped up all day waiting to hopefully catch a fish, and then coming back at 5:28 p.m. In The Evening to check your hook. Or in other words, No Fun. But, to each his own I guess.

 

NFL Week 1 Opening Point Spreads and Totals—Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook

 

Thursday, September 10, 2015
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS -6 Pittsburgh Steelers 53 (NBC)

 

Sunday, September 13, 2015
Green Bay Packers -4 CHICAGO BEARS 50

HOUSTON TEXANS -1½ Kansas City Chiefs 43

NEW YORK JETS -1 Cleveland Browns 41

Indianapolis Colts -3 Even BUFFALO BILLS 48

Miami Dolphins -2½ WASHINGTON REDSKINS 44½

Carolina Panthers -4 JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 43½

Seattle Seahawks -3½ ST. LOUIS RAMS 44

ARIZONA CARDINALS -2½ New Orleans Saints 48

SAN DIEGO CHARGERS -2 Detroit Lions 46½

TAMPA BAY BUCCANEERS -3 Tennessee Titans 42½

Cincinnati Bengals -3 OAKLAND RAIDERS 44½

DENVER BRONCOS -4 Baltimore Ravens 53

DALLAS COWBOYS -5½ New York Giants 50 (NBC)

 

Monday, September 14, 2015
Philadelphia Eagles -1½ ATLANTA FALCONS 53½ (ESPN)

SAN FRANCISCO 49ERS -3½ Minnesota Vikings 42 (ESPN)

>HOME TEAM in CAPS

 

Conclusion
What really stands out here in the week 1 Point Spreads and Totals is the number of Road Favorites there are in Week 1. As you can see, a remarkable 7 of the 16 games see the visitors giving points in the opening numbers, including the defending NFC champion Seattle Seahawks (6/1 to win Super Bowl, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook) who are laying 3½-points to the host St. Louis Rams (30/1) at the Edward Jones Dome on Sunday, September 13—the birthday of legendary Film Director Tyler Perry, who provided us the cinematic classics ‘Madea Gets A Job’, ‘A Madea Christmas,’ and, of course, ‘Madea Goes To Jail.’ The New Renaissance Hath Begun, bruh. Please spread the word if you would.

Also for your consumption, conference odds and a Total for Super Bowl 50, scheduled to be played on February 7 at the new Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, California. Opening conference odds for the Golden Super Bowl see the NFC 2½-point favorites over the AFC—the Moneyline sees the NFC at -135 and the underdog AFC at +115—with the Big game’s Total (Points) opening up at 51½, or about right where you’d expect and near where it’s opened up the last several of seasons with scoring having been on the upswing. In the next two weeks we will have Season Team Win Totals out from the Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook (tentatively scheduled for May 3) as well as a look at updated Super Bowl 50 as well as AFC and NFC Conference odds. Hey, the NFL never sleeps.

NFL WEEK 1 PICK: Dallas Cowboys -5½ over New York Giants (Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook)

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