NFL Week 1 Picks: Best ATS Values If Betting Today

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, June 4, 2015 11:59 PM GMT

We are still three months away from the start of the NFL season, and while there are a lot of variables that can change between now and then, there could still be some nice ATS values as of today. Here are three ATS plays that could be excellent early NFL Odds bets. 

Chiefs vs. Texans
The Texans are going to be the focus of HBO’s Hard Knocks, but they could also be more than just a TV drama this season. They open up the year against a Chiefs team that lost more than they gained in the offseason, and the NFL Odds have the Texans as only -1½ favorites to open the season at home. The Kansas City Chiefs were one of the worst teams defending the run last season, ranked 28th in the NFL, and they did little to nothing to remedy that in the offseason. Assuming Arian Foster is set to have another big season, it might start in Week 1 against the Chiefs. A heavy dose of Foster, and a lot of rushing the passer by J.J. Watt could lead to the Texans being a great Week 1 value. They are at least a point or more undervalued in these early NFL odds, and even though we don’t know whom the quarterback will be, and even after losing Andre Johnson, this team is still deadly, and is probably a good bet in Week 1.

NFL Pick: Texans -1½

 

Browns vs. Jets
The Jets spent a small country’s GDP in one offseason this spring, and it might be enough to get them back into the playoffs. Even though they don’t have Rex Ryan as their charismatic leader anymore, they do have a solid defense and running game, ad they will rely on those things in Week 1 against the Browns. Cleveland is still a good defensive team, but their offense might not be able to score more than one or two touchdowns against a stout Jets defense on the road. On top of that, the Browns are dealing with their own QB battle, and it’s not as inspiring as the one the Texans are dealing with now. New York is only a -2½ NFL Odds favorite in this one, and they probably should be at least a -3½ or more favorite. Take advantage of that with your NFL picks this offseason is you agree.

NFL Pick: Jets -2½

 

Seahawks vs. Rams
This one is more speculative than the other two, but even though the Hawks are still a very good football team, their road chances against an improved Rams team could be worse than the sportsbooks like 5Dimes are projecting. The NFL Odds have the Rams as +3 home dogs in this one, and we have already seen the Rams beat this team in St. Louis once in the last year, so what’s to say they can’t do it again. Sure, the Seattle Seahawks got Jimmy Graham and are going to use him, but the Rams also have a very athletic defense, capable of slowing down this offense. It’s going to take a big performance from their offense, but if this one is a heavyweight fight and a lower scoring game, I think it lends the value toward the home dog in this one.

NFL Pick: Rams +3