NFL Week 1 Pick: Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, July 27, 2017 2:29 PM UTC

Thursday, Jul. 27, 2017 2:29 PM UTC

The 2017 NFL season as usual stars with the annual Kickoff Game at the home of the reigning Super Bowl champion. That’s the New England Patriots as they begin defense of that title against Kansas City on Thursday night.

Kansas City Chiefs at New England Patriots (-8, 47.5)

The reigning Super Bowl champion, as New England is, has lost just twice in these annual NFL Kickoff Games and never at home on a Thursday. Survivor Pick: Patriots.

Hey, the Patriots get to start a season without the Deflategate nonsense hanging over Tom Brady’s head. Of course, he was suspended the first four games of last year because of that. He still played like an MVP in his 12 regular-season games and might have won a third career award if not for the suspension, finishing second in the voting to Atlanta’s Matt Ryan. The Chiefs are the defending AFC West champions, largely backing into that title when Oakland lost Derek Carr to a broken leg in Week 15. Otherwise, the Raiders likely claim the crown. Kansas City lost in the divisional round at home to Pittsburgh, 18-16, despite not allowing a touchdown. The last Pats-Chiefs matchup was in the divisional round following the 2015 season and New England won 27-20 at home. Brady threw two touchdowns to Rob Gronkowski and sneaked in for another. The Pats are 6-1 SU and 4-3 ATS in their past seven games as a favorite vs. the Chiefs. Oh, and New England tied an NFL record with 16 covers last season.

  • Patriots are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Patriots are 18-6-2 ATS in their last 26 home games.
  • Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 games in September.
  • Chiefs are 1-4 ATS in their last 5 meetings in New England.
Free NFL Pick: Patriots -8Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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Both these teams lost a key starters to a season-ending injury in the preseason,  Kansas City saying goodbye to running back Spencer Ware and New England losing No. 1 receiver Julian Edelman. The Chiefs have a good-looking rookie back, though, in Kareem Hunt, and the Pats are fairly deep at receiver after trading for the Colts' Phillip Dorsett over the weekend. The Patriots ranked third in the NFL in scoring last year at 27.6 points per game and might be better offensively -- even without Edelman -- as they added receiver Brandin Cooks from New Orleans in an offseason deal. He’s the probably the biggest playmaker at the position Brady has had since Randy Moss. The Chiefs ranked 13th in points in 2016 at 24.3 per game and have one of the NFL's most dynamic all-around offensive threats in second-year receiver/tailback/returner Tyreek Hill. The weather shouldn't be an issue Thursday.

  • Over is 6-2 in Chiefs last 8 games in September.
  • Over is 5-2 in Patriots last 7 home games.
Free NFL Pick: ‘Over’ 47Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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