NFL Week 1 Odds Report: Early Game Line Movement Opening Value

Jordan Sharp

Sunday, September 6, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

Sunday, Sep. 6, 2015 3:04 PM UTC

Week 1 is so close we can almost taste it, and with the preseason in the rearview mirror, it’s time to start taking these NFL Odds seriously.

Steelers vs. Patriots
We now know that Tom Brady is set to play, and we know that they Patriots have jumped up to a -7 NFL Odds favorite after the news. However the bigger change has been in the total, which has dropped from 54 to 51 where it is currently settling.


Chiefs vs. Texans
The Chiefs and Texans should prove to be a very entertaining Week 1 contest, and the NFL Odds movement we have seen over the last several weeks is evidence of that. Right now the NFL Odds have the Texans as only -1 favorites. About a month ago I correctly predicted that this line would drop, and now down from -2 ½, Texans backers are probably licking their lips.


Browns vs. Jets
From what could be one of the more entertaining games of the first week to one that looks like the least entertaining. The NFL Odds have the Jets as -3 favorites with a total of 40, and even though the game might be bad, that doesn’t mean there isn’t any NFL Odds value on this game. Even at 40 points, the under looks like a solid play here. It’s the lowest total of the week, but these two defenses are both good, and the offenses could be very, very bad.  A score of 17-10 is not out of the realm of possibility in this Week 1 game.


Colts vs. Bills
This is another game where I think you can find value, as the NFL Odds have the Bills as +2 ½ home dogs in their opening game. The problem for the Bills is that LeSean McCoy might not play. If he doesn’t, it takes almost all of the wind out of the Bills sails here, but if he can come back, the +2 ½ looks like solid gold.


Packers vs. Bears
Swinging Johnson says that both the squares and the sharps are on the Packers’ NFL Odds here of -6 ½, and I don’t disagree. The NFL Odds for this one have been steadily rising throughout the summer, and even the loss of Jordy Nelson won’t stop the Packers from steamrolling the Bears at Soldier Field in Week 1. The total is also quite high  at 50 points.


Panthers vs. Jaguars
With the injuries to the Panthers, and the unknowns of both of these defenses, this game is a pass for me. The NFL Odds have the line at -3 in favor of the Panthers, but of course the game is in Florida. The Jaguars defense and offense could be good this season, but I’m on a wait and see approach with them.


Dolphins vs. Redskins
The Redskins have become the laughing stock of the league, and the Dolphins are looking to finally get back to the playoffs this season. It’s the perfect Week 1 slaughter, right? Well, the NFL Odds have the Dolphins at only -3 ½ on the road here, and while they could easily win by 20 points, they could also lose this one by three. That kind of variance scares me, so if you like the Dolphins, go for it. I’m just not going to join you.


Seahawks vs. Rams
I really want to believe in the Rams this season, and Week 1 is going to be a good indicator as to whether I can believe or not. St. Louis is a +4 home underdog against the two-time defending NFC Champs, and while the line was at +3 ½ a week ago, the Rams still are one of the more intriguing home dogs of the Week 1 NFL Odds schedule. However, the under at 41 ½ might be the better p

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