NFL Week 1 Last Chance Value Picks

Each week throughout the NFL season we take a look at the line shifts that can give sharp bettors big advantages and even bigger value. Below we compare the opening lines to where they are now, just a few days before kickoff, and see if we can take advantage of the oddsmakers’ generosity and cash our NFL picks!

Pittsburgh Steelers vs. Buffalo Bills 

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Highmark Stadium

You don’t have to convince me to take the Bills as they are one of my favorite picks on the NFL slate this week. But what makes it even better is that we see a pivotal move off the second most important number in football betting, seven, which has now slid half a point to 6 ½ as of this Friday morning writing.

In the interest of full disclosure, I am convinced this will be Ben Roethlisberger’s final campaign and I think we saw the beginning of Pittsburgh’s demise last year when they lost four of their last five regular-season games before getting tossed in the first round of the playoffs by their divisional rivals from Cleveland.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=_BvLGDfTc_g

The Bills, on the other hand, are a team on the rise, and how this Pittsburgh offensive line is supposed to protect their long-in-the-tooth quarterback is beyond me.

I say the Bills get Big Ben’s uniform plenty dirty before this one is through and a double-digit win by Buffalo is quite likely. Nevertheless, we will take every edge we can get and lay the 6 ½ at Heritage.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

Philadelphia Eagles vs. Atlanta Falcons

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Mercedes-Benz Stadium

The line moves don’t have to be big; they just have to be important to matter. And in this case, we see the line ticking up on the favorite, moving from Atlanta -3 to -3 ½ which gives us decent value on the other side, the Philadelphia Eagles. I don’t know why the Falcons should be laying the lumber to any team after their dreadful 4-12 season from a year ago.

But then again, the Eagles were no great shakes either after ending the 2020 campaign with a 4-11-1 mark of their own. I guess, all things considered, it’s viewed as a jump ball between two weak sisters, and the home team is saddled with the customary three-point handicap.

If this meeting was held at a neutral site, we’d likely see the NFL odds revealing a pick’em so there you have it.

https://twitter.com/AtlantaFalcons/status/1436358812399816733?s=20

The Falcons have a lousy defense and their offense was decimated by the departures of Julio Jones and six-time Pro Bowl center, Alex Mack. Of course, the Falcons drafted Kyle Pitts who is a physical freak but I’m not expecting game-changing events from the talented tight end in his first professional game.

Therefore, the Eagles have a very good chance of covering, if not winning this one outright. Remember, Matty Ice is 36 and no longer has his best friend Julio to play catch with so grab the 3 ½ and cash a ticket with Philly.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

San Francisco 49ers vs. Detroit Lions 

Sunday, September 12, 2021 - 01:00 PM EDT at Ford Field

I don’t think laying the lumber on the road is a key to long-term success in sports betting but that doesn’t mean it’s always wrong. Case in point, this Sunday when the 49ers travel to the site of the league’s most moribund franchise, Ford Field, home of the Detroit Lions.

Trey Lance #5 of the San Francisco 49ers lines up at the line of scrimmage. Ezra Shaw/Getty Images/AFP

San Francisco is healthy on defense – finally - and although that will likely change, the fact is we get this ass-kicking unit intact, for at least one game together. They will be facing a beleaguered Jared Goff, under center for Detroit, who will quickly learn the difference between a good offensive line and a poor one.

That alone provides enough impetus to put a bet on the 49ers but factor in a healthy Jimmy Garoppolo and some very fancy weapons surrounding him like Deebo Samuel, Brandon Aiyuk, and a sneaky good Raheem Mostert coming out of the backfield. Plus, we are now getting the 49ers at -7 ½ down from -9 at the opener. Lay it and like it with the Niners.

NFL Pick: (visit our Sportsbook Review)

*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.