After finishing either No.1 or No.2 in NFL football at Cappers Monitor in 2013 and 2015, I have been asked to expand my expertise to the preseason and hopefully, pound out more winners.
Of course, the preseason is completely different, with contrasting agendas for teams and most importantly, winning is not the ultimate goal for many coaches and players, it is about being ready for Week 1 of the regular season.
Here are three NFL picks in the preseason for Week 1 to contemplate.
Jacksonville Should Offer Value as Underdog
Extremely important season for Jacksonville's head coach Gus Bradley with minimum .500 season required to stay employed in north Florida. Coaches in this position tend to place more emphasis on winning even in August, to ensure their teams are in the proper frame of mind heading into regular season. In his second season, the New York Jets Todd Bowles has less to prove after being a rookie head coach and can bring squad along how he prefers. Personally, I prefer the Jags Chad Henne over Geno Smith in presumed quarterback battle and would continue to monitor the NFL odds and see if you can pick up the Jaguars for +3 instead of +2.5. Also, with the total at 36.5, Jacksonville is 10-2 ATS on the road when the total is 25.5 to 38.
Atlanta and Kansas City are Poor Choices
At last look, the Falcons and Chiefs were both three-point home favorite and while I do not believe sportsbooks like Just Bet have the wrong odds, just the fact these teams are less capable of winning this week.
Not difficult to make a case Washington has a better roster than Atlanta, especially in the trenches. While the difference shrinks once all the reserves are playing, Jay Gruden seems to have a better grasp of the entire situation than Dan Quinn for Falcons. Just make sure to bet against the Birds right away, because Atlanta falling below -3 would not be a surprise.
Kansas City's Andy Reid has a long history of not giving you know what about the preseason. That is why he is 4-13 ATS as a home favorite of three points or less in his career. He's also at a place where the Chiefs coaches over the years either felt like he did or did not have enough talent to succeed, with K.C. 16-39 ATS in games where the line is +3 to -3. Since Seattle Pete Carroll wants to win every game, wager against Kansas City.