NFL Underdog Game of the Week: Bet Patriots ATS vs. Packers

Joe Gavazzi

Saturday, November 29, 2014 7:09 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 29, 2014 7:09 PM UTC

Every week I isolate a premiere Underdog Play of the Week for NFL betting. The reasons may be based in statistical advantages, it may be a strong situational play, and often it is backed up by meaningful technical data. Find out who we like for our this week.

New England Patriots vs. Green Bay Packers (-3) 4:25 PM ET
I've isolated the Underdog Play of the Week in the NFL. The method of selecting our NFL picks is based on statistical advantages, it may be a strong situational play, and often it is backed up by meaningful technical data.  In any case, the combination of those 3 basic reasons for favoring a Pro Football side give the bettor an outstanding opportunity to cash his underdog ticket.  Today’s action takes us to the top of the NFL standings in a marquee matchup featuring two of the best signal callers, coaches and teams in the NFL. A quick review of the analysis below will allow the reader the confidence to pull the trigger on this Underdog selection.

Green Bay enters this match up at 8-3 SU leading Detroit by a single game in the loss column for Divisional superiority in the NFC North. Green Bay has won all 5 home games this season by margins of 7, 32, 21, 41 and 33 points.  In so doing, they have averaged 44 PPG on this field. They are led by the strong passing game that is authored by QB Rodgers. Green Bay completes 69% of their passes for 8.1 PYPA and 262 PYPG. Their 32 PPG offense averages 6.3 OFF YPPL, tied for the best in Football. Green Bay enters the contest today on a 3 game winning streak beating Chicago by 41, Philadelphia by 33 before squeezing by Minnesota 24-21. 

New England is even hotter than Green Bay. At 9-2 SU, New England is tied with Arizona for the best record in the NFL. As such, they hold the largest point differential of any team in the league at +130 points.  New England has been super hot of late in winning their previous 7 games. Yet this is a team who may still be peaking. New England’s previous 3 victories have all come against quality teams Denver, Indianapolis and Detroit. These teams are a combined 23-11 SU. Yet in those games, New England has won by a combined score of 119-50.  In so doing, they have complimented the passing of Brady with a ground game that has averaged 153 YPG in those victories. 

It is that ground game which provides us with our fundamental edge in this contest. For if there is a weak link in the Green Bay defense, it is a front seven that allows opponents to run the ball 31 times a game for 137/4.5. That is 3rd worst in the league. Adding technical support to this underdog selection is the strong record of the HC Belichick/ QB Brady duo when taking points. Note the long term record is 34-15 ATS as underdog including 17-4 ATS recently as well as 3-0 SU, ATS this year in the role of pick or underdog. From the fundamental and technical analysis above, it is clear that New England is your NFL odds Top Dog of the Week.

Free NFL Pick: Bet the Patriots +3 at 5Dimes

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