In this comprehensive game-by-game NFL betting guide, bettors will find all the important information to know ahead of Sunday’s jampacked NFL schedule. We’ve got you covered from injuries, betting trends and stats, tips, and, much, much more – all things that could impact how week 17 unfolds.
New York Jets vs Buffalo Bills
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – New Era Field, Buffalo – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Jets (6-9-0) vs Bills (10-5-0)
Opening Line: PK / 37.5
The Buffalo Bills emerge as the early consensus bet for their clash with the New York Jets in week 17 both straight up and against the spread according to SBR Consensus Betting reports, a market trend that is underscored by Buffalo’s stellar campaign. The Bills are 10-5 SU overall and a league-leading 9-4-2 ATS this season with a 4.1 winning margin on average. It makes sense to back a team that’s rewarded NFL bettors with a consistency such as theirs.
Yet, given the fact that this is a meaningless game the sharp NFL pick may very well be the New York Jets. Undoubtedly, the Bills are the better team but their work is done as far as the regular season campaign is concerned. They’ve locked down the No.5 seed and they’ll be on the road for the wildcard round of the playoffs. Sean McDermott may decide to be smart with his roster and rotate second-string players into the game after a few series, if not the first quarter. Not unlike it’s done in preseason games.
The Jets aren’t going anywhere for the playoffs, save the golf course, a vacation maybe or simply the couch. There’s nothing to do until spring when preliminary training camps begin. A win in this final game, therefore, is nothing but a small consolation – the difference between finishing 6-10 and 7-9 is a moot point – but they’ll be coming full circle and settling the score with their divisional foes after letting a 16-0 lead slip through their fingers to go on to lose 17-16 to Buffalo in week 1.
It’s a tossup for week 17 NFL picks. There isn’t a whole lot to like about the Jets, but a watered-down Bills side could mean the difference in winning and losing in the ultimate round of the 2019 regular season.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Jets are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of NY Jets’ last 5 games on the road
- Bills are 9-4-2 ATS in their last 15 games
- Bills are 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games at home
NYJ – G Alex Lewis (Ankle), CB Nate Hairston (Illness), DL Steve McLendon (Knee), T Kelvin Beachum (Back) and DL Henry Anderson (Calf) are listed as day-to-day.
BUF – DE Shaq Lawson (Undisclosed), WR Andre Roberts (Undisclosed) and C Mitch Morse (Lower Body) are listed as day-to-day.
Cleveland Browns vs Cincinnati Bengals
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Paul Brown Stadium, Cincinnati – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Browns (6-9-0) vs Bengals (1-14-0)
Opening Line: Browns -3 / 46
The Cleveland Browns opened as the field goal favorites on the road but the NFL line has moved ever so slightly against them since early doors. As it stands, most top-rated sports betting shops tip the Browns at -2.5 with varied juice.
Consensus Betting trends reveal the Browns are taking in the bulk of early NFL picks. According to SBR’s dashboard, the Browns are the top NFL pick to win straight up (86%) and the choice NFL pick to cover (62%), despite Cleveland’s trends on the season suggesting otherwise. The Browns are merely 6-9 SU on the season and 5-9-1 ATS with a -3.2 losing margin on average. On the road, they are 2-5 SU and ATS with a -4.7 losing margin on average.
It’s safe to say the Bengals aren’t better than the Browns in any shape or form. The lowly 1-14 SU record ahead of week 17 betting speaks volumes, along with their rather underwhelming 5-10-0 ATS record that is capped with a -10.1 losing margin on average.
Yet, there are some pundits that would have a bet on Cincinnati as the sharp bet of the week. Cincinnati has locked the No. 1 draft pick for 2020 which might spell the end for veteran quarterback Andy Dalton, meaning this game is his last audition for a gig elsewhere in the league. Dalton dropped 23 points in the Miami Dolphins defense in the fourth quarter last week to make that contest somewhat riveting. This is his second shot to make his case.
This also falls in line with those that subscribed to the “fire Freddie Kitchens” narrative. Surely, the ignominy of a loss to the hapless Bengals would put the final nail in Kitchens’ coffin, having him among several head coaches that are sure to make headlines on Black Monday (the day immediately following the last Sunday of a regular season that is reserved for sacking head coaches across the league).
All told, this matchup could go either way. All depends on whether the Browns will show up for this game. They didn’t show up when it mattered so it wouldn’t be surprising if they didn’t show up to Paul Brown either.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Browns are 3-7 SU in their last 10 games against Bengals
- Browns are 2-5 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Bengals are 1-6 ATS in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 9 of Cincinnati’s last 15 games
CLE – RB Dontrell Hillard (Knee) is listed as day-to-day; C Jason Tretter (Knee) and DT Sheldon Richardson (Back) are questionable for Sunday.
CIN – CB William Jackson III (Shoulder) and CB Tony McRae (Concussion) both are listed as questionable.
Green Bay Packers vs Detroit Lions
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Ford Field, Detroit – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Packers (12-3-0) vs Lions (3-11-1)
Opening Line: Packers -10 / 41.5
The Green Bay Packers are tied with New Orleans Saints and San Francisco 49ers on a 12-3 SU record going into the final week of the season. They clinched the NFC North crown last week on the road, beating the much-favored Minnesota Vikings 23-10 at U.S. Bank Stadium. A win in week 17 could decide where they finish in the NFC Conference when all is said and done, in first or second place.
So, it’s safe to assume the Packers are eying the No.1 seed and therefore a win at the expense of the woeful Detroit Lions will go some way towards securing that slot. The Packers are riding a four-game winning streak into the last lap around the league and they’re a perfect 5-0 SU against the division. On the flipside, the Lions are riding an eight-game losing streak – the worst active losing streak in the league –and they’re 0-5 SU versus the division.
These are two teams headed in different directions. Quite rightly, bookmakers install the Packers as the runaway faves to win straight up and tip Green Bay as the overwhelming road chalk, laying anywhere between -12.5 to -13. Yet, oddly, the NFL betting trends don’t fall in the line with this market outlook, if SBR Consensus betting reports were any indication, as it seems NFL bettors are lapping up the points with the Lions as well banking on the outright upset at Ford Field. The Lions have 57% of spread bets and 51% of moneyline bets.
Banking on the upset is well and good – everybody loves a big upset because of the sensationalism it injects into the proceedings as well as the attractive remuneration. The main litmus test for the potential upset is the merit of the team in question and that simply isn’t being met here. The Lions are 5-10-0 ATS this season with a -5.3 losing margin on average and in their last three games they are 0-3 SU and ATS.
The Lions were blown out by double-digit margins (an average of approx. 16 points) in a loss to Minnesota, Tampa Bay, and Denver. If that trend spills over here, a bet on the Packers for week 17 NFL picks would prove the smart bet.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Packers are 10-5 ATS in their last 15 games
- Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Lions are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 10 of Detroit’s last 15 games
GB – T Josh Nijman (Elbow) is on I-R. S Will Redmond (Hamstring) and RB Jamaal Williams (Shoulder) are listed as questionable.
DET – LB Jahlani Taval (Shoulder), DT Mike Daniels (Arm) and G Kenny Wiggins (Arm) are on I-R.
Los Angeles Chargers vs Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Arrowhead Stadium, Kansas City – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Chargers (5-10-0) vs Chiefs (11-4-0)
Opening Line: Chiefs -7.5 / 47.5
What’s at stake in this game is mainly Kansas City’s final playoff standing, the potential to finish as the No. 2, 3, or 4 seed in the AFC. Everything depends on what happens here along with what happens in the Patriots and Texans games on the day’s NFL betting card. So, it’s safe to say Andy Reid and the Chiefs will be going all out for the win here and leaving nothing to chance.
Not surprisingly, the Chiefs opened as the considerable home chalk. Equally so, it’s no surprise that the NFL line has moved well and truly in their favor, swelling from an opening -7.5 to -9 already with a few days yet before kick-off as the volume of bets coming down the wire goes firmly towards the hosts.
Anthony Lynn’s side has nothing to play for and can’t limp to the finish line fast enough. A date on the road in week 17 is doing them no favors either. The Chargers are one of the worst teams against the spread with a 4-9-2 ATS record – second only to Chicago. On the road, they are 3-3-1 ATS with a 6.4 losing margin on average. In the last six games, the Chargers are merely 1-5 ATS. In the last meeting with the Chiefs, they lost 24-17 and failed to cover as the +5.5 road underdogs.
Normally, double-digit spreads are tricky to predict and this game is no exception. Those looking to back the Chargers on their week 17 NFL picks might hang their hats on one intriguing trend: nine of the ten losses suffered by Rivers and Co. featured losing margins of 7 points or less. That trend alone would make a bet on the Chargers to cover a worthy of consideration.
Yet, the 24-17 win by the Chiefs over the Chargers in Mexico kickstarted a 5-game winning streak and with each passing game, the margin of victory for Kansas City grew thanks to an improved defense. The last two games saw the Chiefs hold opponents to mere field goals. That’s ominous for the Chargers and makes a bet on the Chiefs to cover as the massive home chalk the likelier option.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Chargers are 3-3-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Chargers are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Chiefs are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games
- Chiefs are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games
LAC – LB Denzel Perryman (Ankle) and RB Justin Jackson (Hamstring) are day-to-day.
KC – RB Spencer Ware (Shoulder) and G Andrew Wylie (Illness) are day-to-day.
Chicago Bears vs Minnesota Vikings
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – U.S. Bank Stadium, Minneapolis – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Bears (7-8-0) vs Vikings (10-5-0)
Opening Line: Vikings -7.5 / 41.5
The Chicago Bears prop up the league with a 4-11-0 ATS mark against the spread, the worst run of form in the NFL. To put it simply, betting on Chicago to cover is more often a lost cause, a waste of an NFL pick.
Having said that this game presents little or no motivation for Minnesota Vikings to win, save for the desire to avoid the series sweep. Chicago beat Minnesota earlier in the season at Soldier Field and a win here would see Chicago own the divisional series between this pair. Not to mention, the Bears would finish 8-8 SU on the season which is a much better record than finishing 7-9 SU.
Whether Zimmer is down with losing the series for the greater good remains to be seen. The Vikings are locked in at the No.6 seed for the NFC playoffs and nothing that happens in week 17 will change their position in the playoff frame. Key players are still banged up and Zimmer might opt to be cautious in his approach to this game, although he’s yet to confirm such a decision.
Nevertheless, sports betting markets have taken the initiative to make this assumption on Minnesota’s behalf. Vegas lookahead NFL lines had this game tipped around Vikings laying -7.5 in point spread betting but, as bookmakers went to press on the heels of week 16’s results, the Vikings reopened as the nominal -1.5 home chalk (or thereabouts depending on your choice sportsbook).
For all intents and purposes, this is a tossup for week 17 NFL picks. Chicago’s record against the spread isn’t encouraging and it wouldn’t be surprising if they implode one last time this season. On the flipside, it’s hard to know what Minnesota’s intentions in this game are when it matters naught towards the broad spectrum of their playoff campaign. If Zimmer decides to defy expectations, covering as the laughable home chalk should be a doddle and that would make a bet on Minnesota a steal for week 17 NFL picks.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Bears are 1-5 ATS in their last 6 games on the road
- Bears are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Vikings are 8-7 ATS in their last 15 games
- Vikings are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games at home
CHI –OL Rashad Coward (Knee), NT Eddie Goldman (Concussion) and DT Akeem Hicks (Elbow) are day-to-day.
MIN – LB Eric Kendricks (Quadricep) is listed as questionable.
Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Gillette Stadium, Foxboro – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Dolphins (4-11-0) vs Patriots (12-3-0)
Opening Line: Patriots -17 / 43.5
Brian Flores has made no secret of his intentions to return to Foxboro with the express motive of playing spoiler. His friendships with former colleagues in New England aside, for the duration of the four quarters he expects the Dolphins to play their hearts out in order to give the Patriots a run for their money.
The Patriots have bigger fish to fry (pun intended). The premium on the win couldn’t be any greater as a first-round bye in the playoffs is on the line. This isn’t just a divisional encounter; this is for alignment in the AFC playoff frame. Heck, Belichick is taking this game itself as if it were a playoff game – which is paying the Dolphins a huge compliment.
That compliment hasn’t transcended NFL betting markets at all though. Bookmakers opened with the Patriots giving up a bucketload of points to the Dolphins and that NFL betting outlook hasn’t changed. Depending on your preferred sportsbook, the Patriots are hanging anywhere from -15.5 to -16.5, which is a massive point spread, one that is not for the fainthearted to tackle with week 17 NFL picks.
Nevertheless, the Patriots are no strangers to big point spreads. Five times this season, they’ve faced double-digit spreads to go 4-1 ATS. They might have been a perfect 5-0 ATS not for some uncharacteristic blunders from special teams and backup play a 30-14 win by New England over the NY Jets.
In week 2, the Patriots crushed the Dolphins 43-0 to cover as the -18-point road chalk. On the season, the Patriots are 8-6-1 ATS with a 13.2 winning margin on average and at Foxboro they are 3-3-1 ATS with a 12.1 winning margin on average. Since 2017, the Patriots are 7-2 ATS at home with a 15.9 winning margin on average.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Dolphins are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
- The total has gone OVER in 7 of Miami’s last 10 games
- Patriots are 3-5 ATS in their last 8 games
- Patriots are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home against Dolphins
MIA –RB Myles Gaskin (Ankle), WR Allen Hurns (Shoulder), CB Jomal Wiltz (Shoulder) and LB Vince Biegel (Elbow) are day-to-day.
NE – OL Marcus Cannon (Ankle), WR Julian Edelman (Head) and CB Jason McCourty (Groin) are day-to-day.
Atlanta Falcons vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Raymond James Stadium, Tampa – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Falcons (6-9-0) vs Buccaneers (7-8-0)
Opening Line: PK / 50.5
The Falcons and Bucs collide in a game that offers little motivation for either side to win. Both teams are out of the playoff frame and have nothing to play for save pride. It’s also interesting to note, both teams have enjoyed better second halves of the season.
The Falcons are riding a three-game winning streak down the stretch – their best run of form in 2019 as they fight for their head coach Dan Quinn. Since the bye week, they’ve won five of their last seven games and gone 5-2 ATS as well. The UNDER has cashed in four of their last seven games.
The Bucs succumbed to a loss to the Texans in week 16, a loss that snapped a four-game winning streak down the stretch. Although the Bucs failed to clinch the win at home over Houston, they’ve gone 3-1-1 ATS in their last five games. Where the Bucs rank amongst the best in the league is in total betting where they are a league-leading 11-4 versus the total number.
Seeing as the motivation for the win is canceled out in this game it’s likely to go either way. Neither Atlanta or Tampa Bay have a glaring edge over the other and that makes it a tossup for week 17 NFL picks in straight-up betting and point spread betting. In the end, the best bet may be in total betting markets with a lean towards the OVER.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Falcons are 5-1 SU in their last 6 games against Buccaneers
- Falcons are 6-2 ATS in their last 8 games
- Bucs are 5-2 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 11 of Tampa’s last 15 games
ATL –DB Jordan Miller (Suspension) is out for Sunday; WR Brandon Powell (Wrist). S Ricardo Allen (Shoulder), DE Allen Bailey (Hand), DE Adrian Clayborn (Knee) and RB Kenyon Barner (Shoulder) are all questionable for Sunday.
TB – K Matt Gay (Back), DL William Gholston (Ankle) and QB Jameis Winston (Thumb) are listed as probable for Sunday; T Donovan Smith (Ankle) is listed as questionable for Sunday.
New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 1:00 PM EST – Bank of America Stadium, Charlotte – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Saints (12-3-0) vs Panthers (5-10-0)
Opening Line: Saints – 14.5 / 48
Perry Fewell might be motivated to get his first win as an interim head coach for the Carolina Panthers, but to do so he’ll need to outwit Sean Payton; rookie quarterback Will Grier would have to play out of this world, and the shellshocked Panthers would have to somehow snap out of their stupor and tap into a level of play not seen in recent weeks. In seven weeks to be exact when Carolina was 5-3 SU before taking a nosedive on the season.
Talk about hallucinatory. That’s exactly how the NFL betting markets view this mismatch, which hangs on one of several double-digit spreads trading on the NFL odds board this week.
The Saints need this win to have a crack at a first-week bye in the playoffs. As it is, the Saints are in third place in the NFC frame and a win coupled with setbacks for the Packers and Niners would help their cause towards securing one of two top seeds.
The Saints are peaking at the perfect time. They’re riding a two-game winning streak into week 17, which includes blowout wins over the Colts and Titans. They’re 4-1 SU against the division and 6-1 SU on the road. The Saints boast a solid 10-5 ATS mark, which includes a 5.7 winning margin on average and nigh perfect 6-1 ATS mark on the road with a 5.9 winning margin. If that’s not a ringing endorsement consider the Panthers have lost their last four games by margins of 8, 20, 6 and 32 points. The latter of which marked Grier’s first NFL start.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Saints are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games on the road
- Saints are 5-0 ATS in their last 5 games on the road
- Panthers are 0-7 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Carolina’s last 8 games
NO –CB Eli Apple (Ankle) and S Marcus Williams (Groin) are day-to-day.
CAR – WR DJ Moore (Concussion) and DT Woodrow Hamilton (Illness)
Washington Redskins vs Dallas Cowboys
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – AT&T Stadium, Arlington – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Redskins (3-12-0) vs Cowboys (7-8-0)
Opening Line: Cowboys -11 / 45.5
Talk about eye-popping double-digit spreads. After the debacle in Philly, it’s somewhat surprising to have Dallas tipped as the whopping -11 home chalk against Washington Redskins. The NFL line is high partly down to do Dwayne Haskin’s ankle injury that has ruled him out from competing in week 17, but Dak Prescott’s injured shoulder is a cause for concern as well and it’s not being appropriately taken stock of by the sports betting exchange.
Clearly, Prescott’s shoulder is affecting his passing game and it could very well be a factor in this final game of the season unless Dallas opts for a run-heavy game plan and relegates Prescott to just game manager. The growing injury list is another matter to consider.
The Cowboys are 8-7 ATS with a 5.5 winning margin on average and 4-3 ATS at home with a 9.7 winning margin. It’s true they’ve had success against lesser teams and the 3-12 SU Washington Redskins do fit the bill. Yet, SBR Consensus betting reveals Washington is the trendy NFL pick at early doors, not only to win straight up but to cover as well. Clearly, NFL bettors aren’t buying what Dallas is selling, which is groundbreaking stuff.
The Redskins will be starting Case Keenum, who might use this opportunity to make his case for a starting job elsewhere. Keenum is an able enough quarterback to pick up where Haskins left off, and with the team playing much better overall in recent weeks he could enjoy more success than he did when he was the starter in the first few weeks of the season.
Of course, most of this is supposition mainly. There are so many uncertainties surrounding this game that it’s the trickiest to handicap for week 17 NFL picks. The Cowboys are in a must-win situation but they’re falling apart spectacularly. Too many opportunities to clinch the NFC East title have come and gone begging. Washington could play spoiler and few would be shocked.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Redskins are 5-4 ATS in their last 9 games
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Washington’s last 6 games
- Cowboys are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Dallas’ last 8 games
WAS – QB Dwayne Haskins (Ankle) is ruled out for Sunday; CB Danny Johnson (Hand), T Morgan Moses (Knee) and S Montae Nicholson (Neck) are day-to-day; S Landon Collins (Achilles) and RB Adrian Peterson (Toe) are listed as probable on Sunday; T Donald Penn (Knee) are questionable for Sunday.
DAL – G Xavier Su’a-Filo (Knee) is on I-R; QB Dak Prescott (Shoulder), CB C.J. Goodwin (Thumb). S Jeff Heath (Shoulder), P Chris Jones (Abdominal), DE Demarcus Lawrence (Shoulder), DE Michael Bennett (Foot) and LB Joe Thomas (Knee) are all questionable for Sunday.
Oakland Raiders vs Denver Broncos
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – Empower Field at Mile High, Denver – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Raiders (7-8-0) vs Broncos (6-9-0)
Opening Line: Broncos -3.5 / 41.5
A lot is being made about the Raiders having a slim shot to make the playoffs with a win and a list of other things going their way but, to be fair, it’s a bit of a stretch. In any event, the Raiders have been in a position where the weight of expectation rested on their shoulders only to falter.
On the season, the Raiders are 2-5 SU on the road and 3-2 SU against the division. In spread betting, they’re 3-4 ATS with a 12.7 losing margin on the road and against divisional opponents they are 3-2 ATS with a -6.4 losing margin. Before beating the Los Angeles Chargers in week 16, the Raiders were riding a four-game losing streak and consequently being written off by practically every single NFL betting analyst. Now, they’re the novelty NFL pick it seems.
According to SBR Consensus Betting reports, the Raiders are taking the bulk of early betting coming down the wire, a distinct market tendency that goes against what the Broncos have been doing in recent weeks since starting rookie quarterback Drew Lock. The Broncos are 3-1 SU and ATS with Lock all the while they’re 3-1 versus the total.
The Broncos may not have much incentive to win this game but they’ve got the momentum with Lock and finishing the season on a positive note will be a key priority for first-year head coach Vic Fangio.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Raiders are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Raiders are 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Broncos are 5-2 ATS in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone OVER in 5 of Denver’s last 7 games
OAK –RB Josh Jacobs (Shoulder), G Richie Incognito (Ankle), CB Nick Nelson (Knee), CB Trayvon Mullen (Neck) and S Lamarcus Joyner (Calf) are day-to-day; G Gabe Jackson (Knee) is probable for Sunday; LB Marquel Lee (Toe) is on I-R.
DEN – OL Dalton Risner (Illness) and G Elijah Wilkinson (Ankle) are day-to-day
Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum, Los Angeles – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Cardinals (5-9-1) vs Rams (8-7-0)
Opening Line: Rams -7 / 49
The Cardinals upset the highly fancied Seattle Seahawks in week 16, a result that sent seismic shockwaves through NFL betting markets and prompted Pete Carroll to make some dramatic late signings to the roster. Obviously, losing to Arizona was not quite the look Seattle was going for as the season was winding down.
Enduring a similar fate would not go down well for Sean McVay’s side either but they lost any claim on a postseason berth behind a defeat to San Francisco 49ers at Levi’s Stadium last week. The Super Bowl finalists now join a slew of teams that went to the big game only to miss the playoffs entirely in the following season.
How the Rams get up for this clash remains to be seen. They have nothing to play for and the disappointment of all the missed opportunities must be catching up to them. The Rams have home advantage where they’re 4-3 SU and 3-3 ATS. On the season, the Rams are 10-5 ATS with a 1.5 winning margin overall.
The Cardinals, however, strike an attractive pose for the upset with a 9-5-1 ATS mark that includes a -4.9 losing margin on average. At the very least, the Cardinals could keep this game closer than the NFL odds would suggest. Problem is the NFL betting lines are mostly off the board because of the injury concerns that surround this game. If Murray (hamstring) starts, Arizona’s value will improve for week 17 NFL picks. If Murray sits out the final game, the Rams will likely emerge as the value NFL pick.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Cardinals are 5-1-1 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone OVER in 4 of Arizona’s last 7 games
- Rams are 3-3 ATS in their last 6 games at home
- Rams are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games against Arizona
ARI – QB Kyler Murray (Hamstring), S Charles Washington (Calf), OL Justin Pugh (Back), TE Darrell Daniels (Bicep) and TE Charles Clay (Knee) are day-to-day.
LAR –RB Darrell Henderson (Ankle) is out for the season; DL Michael Brockers (Knee), WR Nsimba Webster (Concussion), S Eric Weddle (Groin) and T Andrew Whitworth (Quadricep)
Philadelphia Eagles vs NY Giants
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – MetLife Stadium, East Rutherford – TV Broadcast: FOX
Season Record: Eagles (8-7-0) vs Giants (4-11-0)
Opening Line: Eagles -5 / 46
This is one of the must-spot games of the week’s NFL betting cards. Doug Pederson’s side needs a win over the NY Giants at MetLife to have a shot at the NFC East title and a playoff berth. As it is, they’re in pole position, having beaten the Dallas Cowboys in week 16 and they have the momentum and form going into week 17 NFL betting.
The Giants have won two in a row with each of their quarterbacks. Eli Manning gave the Giants their first win in a long time when they beat Miami at home. Daniel Jones stepped in for the Giants in week 16 and led the Big Blue to a victory in the nation’s capital. This is the first positive run for the Giants since early October.
The Eagles have the ultimate motivation to win this game and that should make them a viable NFL pick if the last few weeks were any indication. The Eagles have won three in a row, beating the Giants, Redskins, and Cowboys in succession. For a fourth straight week, they face a divisional opponent, a familiar foe.
Overall, the Eagles are 6-9 ATS on the season and 3-4 ATS on the road. Their last two victories featured hefty winning margins over the Redskins and Cowboys of 10 points and 8 points respectively. Against the total, the Eagles are 7-8 going into week 17.
Curiously the betting is split almost down the middle in this game with bettors banking on the Giants for the upset over the Eagles and giving the Cowboys a hand in the NFC East title race. Obviously, anything is possible on any given Sunday. The way the NFC East has progressed in 2019 another twist and turn would be par for the course.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Eagles are 3-4 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Eagles are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Giants are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
- Giants are 4-1 ATs in their last 5 games
PHI – JJ Arcega-Whiteside (Foot), CB Ronald Darby (Hip Flexor) and CB Jalen Mills (Ankle) are day-to-day.
NYG – CB Sam Beal (Neck), LB Alec Ogletree (Back) and T Mike Remmers (Concussion) are day-to-day.
Indianapolis Colts vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – TIAA Bank Stadium, Jacksonville – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Colts (7-8-0) vs Jaguars (5-10-0)
Opening Line: Colts -3 / 44.5
A chance to finish 8-8 SU with a win over the Jaguars is about all the motivation that exists in this game for Indianapolis. The Colts are flush off a comprehensive win over the Panthers in week 16, a veritable lopsided beatdown that bolsters their value and puts them within a win of a .500 finish.
Jacksonville’s motivation is intangible. Harder to pinpoint and quantify. Doug Marrone is likely fighting for his job. Gardiner Minshew is likely playing to make his case as a starter in the NFL, and the team as a whole may fancy giving home fans something to cheer about before the curtain comes down on 2019. The last bit is a stretch though. Those that have followed the Jaguars know there’s been little to cheer about and expecting that to change at the eleventh hour is a bit rich.
The Jaguars are 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS against the division with a 10.6 losing margin on average. At home, they’re 2-5 SU and ATS with on the season they’re 6-9 ATS with a 7.7 losing margin on average. By the stats, it’s not joyful reading for the Jaguars, which is probably one of the reasons why they’re at the disadvantage on the NFL odds board in week 17.
Given the Jaguars are the lesser team, it’s no surprise that the Colts are not only trading as the field goal favorites on the road but that they emerge as the consensus NFL pick according to SBR Consensus Betting reports.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Colts are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Colts are 3-2-2 ATS in their last 7 games on the road
- Jaguars are 2-5 SU in their last 7 games at home
- The total has gone UNDER in 6 of Jacksonville’s last 10 games
IND – DT Grover Stewart (Knee) is day-to-day
JAX – no new injuries
Pittsburgh Steelers vs Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – M&T Bank Stadium, Baltimore – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Steelers (8-7-0) vs Ravens (13-2-0)
Opening Line: Ravens -3 / 41
Pittsburgh Steelers are faced with a must-win game and it couldn’t be a more straightforward matchup had Mike Tomlin scripted it himself. The Steelers are set to take on a watered-down Baltimore Raven’s side that will be resting Lamar Jackson and a slew of their standout starters. If this doesn’t play in Pittsburgh’s favor then they really have no business going to the playoffs.
RGIII is set to make his first start in years; the backup has enjoyed a few turns in 2019 when Jackson and the Ravens built a sufficient lead to allow the backup to take over. It remains to be seen how he’ll hold up in a full game against a vaunted Steelers defense that did give the first team a run for its money when they last met at Heinz Field and forced overtime.
The Steelers are 8-7 SU and 9-6 ATS on the season with a 0.3 winning margin on average. They’ve been winning by the skin of their teeth in close tight games for the most part. On the road, the Steelers are 3-4 SU and 4-3 ATS with a 5-point winning margin and against divisional opponents, the Steelers are 3-2 SU and 4-1 ATS with a 4-point winning margin on average.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Steelers are 3-4 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- The total has gone UNDER in 7 of Pittsburgh’s last 8 games
- Ravens are 11-0 SU in their last 11 games
- Ravens are 8-3 ATS in their last 11 games
PIT – QB Mason Rudolph (Shoulder), LB Bud Dupree (Shoulder) and RB James Conner (Thigh) are day-to-day.
BAL – RB Mark Ingram II (Calf), TE Mark Andrews (Ankle) and DT Brandon Williams (Undisclosed) are day-to-day.
Tennessee Titans vs Houston Texans
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 4:25 PM EST – NRG Stadium, Houston – TV Broadcast: CBS
Season Record: Titans (8-7-0) vs Texans (10-5-0)
Opening Line: Titans -4 / 48.5
The Titans need the win in order to clinch a spot in the AFC playoffs, while the Texans could potentially improve their playoff standings with a win over the Titans. As such, Bill O’Brien is preparing to field his starters for this final week 17 contest but there’s a caveat to consider. If the Chiefs win their early game then the Texans will be locked in as the No.4 seed, thereby ending any real motivation for O’Brien to risk his starters to injury ahead of the playoffs.
Those looking to bet this game in favor of Houston might fancy waiting to pull the trigger until the result of the Chiefs game is in the books. It’s bound to have a significant impact on how this matchup unfolds and how the NFL line develops. Then again, for those that fancy the Titans already, banking on the point spread now might prove the savvy NFL pick. If the Texans rest starters, the Titans’ NFL odds will swell surely.
The Titans are a solid 6-3 SU and 5-4 ATS with Ryan Tannehill at the helm. They’re also 8-1 versus the total number. The Titans did lose the last two games in a row but they faced stiff opposition in the Texans and Saints and Derrick Henry was hindered by an injury. The week 15 meeting between the Titans and Texans ended up with a 24-21 Houston win but it easily could have gone the other way with the teams at full strength.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Titans are 6-3 SU in their last 9 games
- Titans 5-4 ATS in their last 9 games
- Texans are 5-0 SU in their last 5 games at home against Texans
- Texans are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
TEN – WR Kalif Raymond (Concussion), WR Corey Davis (Concussion) and DL Jeffrey Simmons (Knee) are day-to-day.
HOU – no new injuries
San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle Seahawks
Sunday, December 29, 2019, 8:20 PM EST – CenturyLink Field, Seattle – TV Broadcast: NBC
Season Record: Niners (12-3-0) vs Seahawks (11-4-0)
Opening Line: Niners -3 / 47
It’s safe to say this is the marquee billing of the week, the must-spot game for week 17 NFL picks and the game with the biggest playoff implications in the NFC. To be victorious in this final Sunday Night football tilt of the regular season would mean winning the NFC West title and potentially even clinching the No.1 seed in the conference. The consolation prize for the loser is the No.5 seed and a playoff game on the road in the wildcard round.
As the table stacks up, the Niners are in the ascendancy, sitting pretty in first place in the NFC West with a 12-3 SU mark and an 8-6-1 ATS mark overall which includes a 10.9 winning margin overall. On their travels, the Niners are a nigh perfect 5-1 SU and 5-2 ATS with an 8.9 winning margin on average.
The Seahawks are 11-4 SU, a mark that includes a 4-3 SU record at home. Against the spread, the Seahawks are 7-7-1 ATS overall but merely 2-5 ATS at home with a -2.7 losing margin on average. It’s that last stat that underscores the NFL betting market for this game, which serves up the Seahawks as the home underdogs.
The recent signing of Marshawn Lynch hasn’t affected the market in a major way, such as flipping the script entirely. NFL betting trends show a conspicuous lean towards the Niners in week 17 NFL picks and that has seen the NFL line move in their favor from an opening -3 to -3.5 according to SBR Consensus Betting dashboard.
Beast Mode is fine and dandy but the reality is Lynch hasn’t played in some time and his fitness and game-readiness are big question marks. Besides, the Seahawks have one guy now that can run the ball but the Niners as a whole have been running the ball down opponents throats all season long, and when they need to they’ve aired it out too. Robert Salah’s defense has Seattle’s sketchy defense beat on paper. The Seahawks did win the first meeting at Levi’s Stadium, but the Niners were one bottled field goal away from taking the win then.
If this season is about San Francisco 49ers’ renaissance in the NFC West, nothing short of a divisional crown will make their rebirth complete. Seattle Seahawks have been vulnerable at CenturyLink Field this season and only last week rookie Kyler Murray and the Cardinals got the better of the Seahawks in a big way. Surely, the Niners can come through as the popular NFL pick here.
Key NFL Betting Trends:
- Niners are 6-1 SU in their last 7 games on the road
- Niners are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
- Seahawks are 4-2 SU in their last 6 games
- Seahawks are 4-3 SU in their last 7 games at home
SF – OL Mike Pearson (Neck) is day-to-day
SEA – T Duane Brown (Knee), RB C.J. Prossie (Arm) and RB Chris Carson (Hip) are out for the season; DT Al Woods (Suspension) and Josh Gordon (Suspension) out indefinitely; G Mike Iupati (Neck) is day-to-day.