Sunday Night Football should be an offensive showdown between the Patriots and Falcons in a Super Bowl rematch. With a total of 56 ½ that has been going up all week, there should be some nice prop picks available for this game, and I have found one in DeVonta Freeman.
We all know the Patriots’ defense has been horrible over the course of the first half. The Falcons are going to try and exploit this on all fronts, but that doesn’t mean the Patriots will just roll over and let the Falcons put up 30 points.
The Patriots have still been pretty good about slowing down the number one option offensively for their opponent, and that is going to be Julio Jones in this one. The Pats will double team and shade coverage to his side of the field, and try to make Matt Ryan hurt them with lesser options.
The Falcons, on the other hand, have to do two things to win this game. They have to play defense, and they have to run the football. The Falcons seem to forget about running the football on occasion, and that could very well happen tonight. However, if they want to stop Tom Brady, the best way to do that is to keep his ass on the sideline.
If they feed Freeman, they keep their own defense fresh, and they are attacking the number one weakness of the Patriots.
New England has allowed a ton of rushing yards and production to running backs this season, but while they rank towards the bottom in rushing yards allowed, their yards allowed through the air to running backs is even worse.
Over six games this season, the Patriots have allowed an average of 76 receiving yards per game against running backs, and with a total yards allowed to 166 per game against running backs, I have no doubt that Freeman can get 100 of those total yards.
Freeman has not hit 100 total yards over the Falcons’ last two games, and not surprisingly, the Falcons lost. He had over 100 total yards the two weeks prior, and the Falcons won high scoring games. In fact, the Falcons are 12-5 SU since 2015 when Freeman gets 100 or more total yards. Follow the formula, Falcons! Take the over on Freeman.Free NFL Pick: OVER 95 ½ (-115)Best Line Offered: at Bovada