NFL Props: Look to La La Land for Which QB Throws Most Interceptions in 2017

Matthew Jordan

Friday, July 21, 2017 4:02 PM UTC

Friday, Jul. 21, 2017 4:02 PM UTC

Most individual NFL player props are for how good a player will be. BetOnline has an interesting one that no quarterback will want to be No. 1 in: most interceptions for 2017.

We can all agree that former Green Bay Packer (and Jet and Viking) Brett Favre is one of the best quarterbacks of all-time, correct? Favre also leads the NFL by a mile in most career interceptions with 336. No. 2 is George Blanda way back at 277. The current active leader is the Saints’ Drew Brees with 220. But throwing picks is what made Favre so interesting in that he was a gunslinger. He wasn’t afraid to force a throw to make a big play.

If you are wondering, and I was, the NFL single-season record for interceptions is 42 by Blanda in 1962 while playing for the Houston Oilers, who still finished 11-3 and lost to the Dallas Texans 20-17 in the AFL Championship Game. The modern single-season record is 35 picks by Vinny Testaverde in 1988 with a Buccaneers team that was 5-11.

There’s a four-way tie on NFL odds to lead the league in picks this year at +550: Jacksonville’s Blake Bortles, the LA (almost typed San Diego) Chargers’ Philip Rivers, the NY Giants’ Eli Manning and Tampa Bay’s Jameis Winston.

The Jaguars have a ton of talent and could be a playoff team, in my opinion, if Bortles can cut down on the turnovers. He has turned it over a whopping 63 times since his 2014 rookie season, with 51 of those coming on interceptions. Bortles had 16 of them last year, which was an improvement considering it was a career low and he attempted a career-high 625 passes. I believe Bortles throws less this year with the presence of rookie running back Leonard Fournette, the NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year favorite. That should help INT-wise.

Rivers led the league with a career-high 21 picks last year even though his passing attempts were well down from 2015 with the emergence of running back Melvin Gordon. Rivers might have lost a top target already for 2017 with an injury to first-round rookie WR Mike Williams.

Manning could be regressing at age 36. The Giants’ offense was one of the worst in the NFL in 2016 despite the presence of superstar receiver Odell Beckham Jr. Manning had his worst rating (86.0) since 2010 and threw 16 interceptions. His career high is 27 in 2013, which easily led the league.

Winston threw 15 interceptions as a rookie and that rose to 18 last year. He might increase his pass attempts in 2017 as the Bucs added two nice weapons for him in free-agent receiver DeSean Jackson and drafting Alabama tight end O.J. Howard in the first round of the draft.

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When making your NFL betting choice here, you must pick a QB who has no chance of being benched for multiple games. So that rules out someone like Chicago’s Mike Glennon or Houston’s Tom Savage or any quarterback on the Jets, Browns or 49ers. It would be shocking if any of those guys played all 16 games. They are all part of the field at +700.

The choice for me is the Rams’ Jared Goff at +600. The 2016 No. 1 overall pick out of Cal looked completely lost in his seven gamers as a rookie, all losses. He completed just 54.6 percent of his throws for 1,089 yards (ghastly 5.31 yards per attempt) with seven picks. The Rams probably will run a fairly conservative offense to protect Goff and feature Todd Gurley, but they have to ride Goff all season to determine if he’s the future or another Ryan Leaf. Goff might throw eight picks just in his two games vs. the Seahawks’ Legion of Boom.

NFL Free Pick: Goff (+600)Best Line Offered: BetOnline
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