NFL Prop Picks For 2016 Draft: Henry Not Among Top Tide Prospects

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, April 28, 2016 4:41 PM GMT

The record amount of players taken in the first round from a single school is six. Could we see The Ohio State University tie or break that mark on tonight? Let's look at the NFL draft odds.

'04 Hurricanes Set The Standard
If we are being honest, there's not a ton of drama for this draft. The two blockbuster trades already have happened, with Tennessee sending the No. 1 overall pick to the Los Angeles Rams and Cleveland sending the No. 2 pick to the Philadelphia Eagles. The Rams will make Cal quarterback Jared Goff the first pick and the Eagles will take North Dakota State QB  Carson Wentz second. We will compare their successes the rest of their careers just as we will Jameis Winston's and Marcus Mariota's, last year's top two picks.

With all due respect to Goff and Wentz, there aren't any 100 percent lock franchise skill-position players this year. The 2017 draft? Could be different with Clemson QB Deshaun Watson and LSU running back Leonard Fournette.

There also isn't a player who captivates national attention in this draft like a Tim Tebow or Johnny Manziel. TV ratings were up in the drafts where those two went because they were so popular.

So the biggest story line of Round 1 could be whether Ohio State will tie or break the record of six first-round players selected. That was set in 2004 by the University of Miami. Those picks were: safety Sean Taylor at No. 5 overall by the Redskins, tight end Kellen Winslow II at No. 6 overall by the Browns (who regrettably passed on Ohio native and Browns fan Ben Roethlisberger), linebacker Jonathan Vilma at No. 12 by the Jets, linebacker D.J. Williams at No. 17 by the Broncos, offensive lineman Vernon Carey 19th by the Dolphins, and defensive lineman Vince Wilfork 21st by the Patriots. All had good careers at a minimum. Vilma's was very good and Wilfork's excellent -- he might be a Hall of Famer someday. Taylor was off to a great start before he was tragically murdered.

Bovada's NFL odds list a total of 5.5 Buckeyes going on Thursday night, with the 'over' at +250 and the 'under' at -400. Defensive end Joey Bosa and running back Ezekiel Elliott are going in the Top 10. Linebacker Darron Lee and offensive tackle Taylor Decker are locks, and cornerback Eli Apple also seems to be a first-rounder. The swing guy for this prop is likely safety Vonn Bell.

Meanwhile, BetOnline offers NFL picks on where Buckeyes receiver Braxton Miller goes: first round (+2500), second (+220), third (+125), fourth (+400), fifth (+600), or sixth/seventh/undrafted (+1600). Forget the latter or first-round options. Not happening. Of course Miller was one of the nation's top dual-threat QBs in 2012-13. He missed all of 2014 with a shoulder injury. OSU had so much QB talent last season off its national title that Miller moved to receiver. That's where he will play in the NFL, sort of a Percy  Harvin-type who can also take handoffs. I suppose some team could use Miller as a Wildcat QB at times as well. Some give Miller a ceiling of Green Bay receiver Randall Cobb, another former college quarterback.

 

Henry Not Among Top Tide Prospects
The other school likely to dominate Round 1 is reigning national champion Alabama. The Tide are given an O/U of 3.5 first-round picks. The 'Over' is -150 and 'under' +110.  They aren't going to have a Top-10 pick. But defensive linemen A'Shawn Robinson and Jarran Reed, and linebacker  Reggie Ragland are projected as first-rounders. The swing guy here is going to be center Ryan Kelly.

Finally, Bovada offers an O/U of No. 36.5 as to where Alabama running back and reigning Heisman Trophy winner Derrick Henry will be selected. The 'Over' is also -150 there and the 'under' +110. I think the site chose 36.5 because Henry could go at No. 36 overall to Baltimore if the Ravens stay there.

Henry certainly had the numbers to be a first-round pick with 2,219 yards and 28 TDs last season. But he carried the ball a whopping 395 times, and that scares NFL scouts in terms of wear-and-tear. So does the fact that Henry can't catch the ball and that other big-time Alabama running backs have failed in the NFL -- most recently Trent Richardson. That said, guys like Mark Ingram and Eddie Lacy have had solid-to-good careers. There does seem to be little doubt that Henry will be the second running back chosen.

NFL Free Picks: 'Under' on the Ohio State prop. Late second round on Miller. 'Over' on the Tide first-rounders and 'Over' on Henry.