NFL Prop Bets for the New England Patriots in 2020

NFL Prop Bets for the New England Patriots in 2020
Cam Newton. Henderson/Getty Images/AFP

New England Patriots are the subject of much speculation and sportsbooks counter those by rolling out a veritable buffet of NFL betting markets.

New England Patriots Entering New, post Tom-Brady Era

Handicapping the New England Patriots ahead of the 2020 NFL season is proving to be challenging. Not least because the franchise is set to embark on a new era without their famous talisman, Tom Brady. Now, the Patriots are having to deal with a mass exodus of players, all exercising NFL’s opt-out provision from the 2020 season due to the ongoing threat of coronavirus.

The list of departing players include:

  • Patrick Chung, S
  • Dont’a Hightower, LB
  • Brandon Bolden, RB
  • Marcus Cannon, OT
  • Danny Vitale, FB
  • Najee Toran, OL

Although many teams have seen players in recent days choose to forgo 2020 – by the latest count twenty-five players have exercised this option already – when compared to the rest of the league, it’s clear the Patriots are facing something akin to a diaspora. And on account of this frantic beeline to the exit door, New England’s odds are feeling the brunt of it in the marketplace.

New England Patriots Odds Fluctuating

Tom Brady’s departure during the offseason was a severe blow to the franchise, threatening the dynasty that Bill Belichick and Brady built together over nearly two decades. Indeed, on the heels of his departure, NFL markets adjusted accordingly, downgrading the Patriots from serious contenders to more middling territory. 

Contemplating what the Patriots might look like on the field with Brian Hoyer or Jarett Stidham calling the shots was an exercise in futility, so massive is the gap in quality and talent between the aforementioned tandem and their predecessor. Brady’s six-time Super Bowl-winning shoes simply too big to fill by their humble standards. 

Things did take a promising turn when Cam Newton penned a one-year deal with the Patriots. The wide consensus had resting the 2020 campaign on Newton’s MVP credentials and Super Bowl runner-up finish a damn sight more reassuring than laying NFL picks on the back of questionable talent. 

And yet things aren’t looking quite so perky for the Patriots again – at least, in terms of the AFC East. Patriots are currently priced as the second-best bet at +160 to win the AFC East with BetOnline; a good distance away from the Bills, who are priced on EVEN odds to lift their first divisional title since 1995. Ages ago. In some cases, a lifetime. Oh! Here’s a little trivia question on the side: What famous NFL player was born in 1995? Clue: He only just got himself a Lombardy. A whopping contract. A stake in an MLB team. Wait for it…drumroll… Patrick Mahomes.

Anyway, let’s not digress here… 

Curiously, in terms of overarching AFC markets, the New England Patriots are priced at +1000 to clinch the AFC, a price tag that puts them on a level with Buffalo Bills, also at +1000 with BetOnline Sportsbook. Only the Kansas City Chiefs and Baltimore Ravens are priced shorter to claim conference bragging rights.

In Super Bowl betting markets, the Patriots are priced at +2000 to win SBLV. A price that is shared with Green Bay Packers, Indianapolis Colts, Philadelphia Eagles and Seattle Seahawks at BetOnline. Six teams are priced shorter: Kansas City (+650), Baltimore Ravens (+700), New Orleans Saints (+1000), San Francisco 49ers (+1200), Tampa Bay Buccaneers (+1200) and Dallas Cowboys (+1600).

Over and above where New England lines up against its peers in the coming season, BetOnline Sportsbook has rolled out a slew of other NFL betting markets featuring the Patriots, including betting on teams with the a) most wins in AFC, b) most overall wins, c) lowest-scoring team regular season wins, d) least wins overall, e) least wins in the AFC, f) last winless team and g) highest-scoring team. It’s fair to say, with all these markets, the Patriots fall somewhere in the middle, highlighting just how difficult they are proving to be to handicap with so many wholesale changes underway.

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Cam Newton Has a Chip on His Shoulder?

Never mind chip, a right, big old boulder is sat on his shoulder if the former Carolina Panthers’ cast-off – once lovingly dubbed by fans of his as “Superman,” – is anything to go by. 

In the spirit of fair play and sportsmanship, Newton’s renaissance in the NFL should be welcome and cheered on by many. In typical fashion, sportsbooks leave no stone unturned, offering a good smattering of Newton odds to bet on as well for early NFL picks

Betting on Newton winning the Comeback Player of the Year award, for which he fronts the market as the +300 bet with Bovada and, in turn, the +375 bet with BetOnline, is getting the most traction. However, NFL fans will find other markets for Cam Newton to bet on. For instance, Newton is the +1600 bet to win the MVP of the season, an honor he claimed five years ago – the same year the Panthers finished runner-up to Denver Broncos in Super Bowl 50. He also gets a mention in the Offensive Player of the year category (+2500). 

Over and above those NFL betting markets, NFL prop bets for Newton are available to wager on as well. The Top 4 are included below: 

Cam Newton Interceptions

  • Over 14.5 -105
  • Under 14.5 -125

NFL Betting Thoughts: Newton’s inconsistency, shoulder injuries and surgeries that prompted a change in his throwing motion added to the fact that he’s set to start on a new team implies there will be growing pains. Betting on the Over 14.5 at -105 as such is a reasonable NFL pick, if you tally that against 108 career interceptions in 125 games played since 2011. 

Cam Newton passing TDs

  • Over 25 +105
  • Under 25 -135

NFL Betting Thoughts: Scoring 25 TDs doesn’t initially sound like much, but when considering only 10 quarterbacks last season cracked the 25-TD mark it’s more of a lofty ambition than one would think. Not to mention, Newton only once cracked 25 TDs in his career and that was during his stellar 2015 campaign. As such, a flutter on the UNDER 25 at -135 seems about right. 

Cam Newton passing yards

  • Over 3650 +130
  • Under 3650 -170

NFL Betting Thoughts: Not unlike the previous market, a target of 3650 yards is up there. However, it’s not entirely unreasonable to consider Newton might crack that mark. In 2019, he played two games in which he averaged 286 yards per game.

If he’d maintained that pace through 16 games he would have topped 4,500 yards. In his career, Newton cracked 3,500 yards four times. A wager on the OVER at +130 therefore is tempting, assuming Belichick will let Newton air the ball.

Cam Newton rushing TDs

  • Over 5.5 -115
  • Under 5.5 -115

Newton’s penchant to run the ball and score on the ground is well-known. He’s not averse to charging opposing defenses and after witnessing the escapades of Lamar Jackson in 2018 he may be inspired to bold ground plays. Newton claims 58 rushing TDs over his career and has scored more the 5.5 rushing TDs in five of his nine seasons in the NFL. (In 2019m Newton played only 2 games and scored 0 rushing TDs). 

In Summary

For those NFL fans looking for New England Patriots action in NFL betting markets, there’s an embarrassing assortment of NFL odds and lines to bet on, including futures and prop bets that cover both team and players. This article merely scratches the surface. For a comprehensive, check with any number of top-rated sportsbooks.