NFL Primetime Betting Trend to Continue in Panthers/Eagles

Joe Gavazzi

Monday, November 10, 2014 6:37 PM GMT

Check out what this NFL handicapper recommends for Week 11's Monday Night NFL pick? Do the Panthers bounce from their 0-3 slide or does Philly rally in the face of the injured QB Foles?

In the crazy world of the NFL, reversals are the norm.  We saw it happen numerous times again Sunday with the Cowboys rebounding from consecutive losses, much like the 49ers did in their must-win OT victory at New Orleans. Count our 6% NFL GOY winner on the Baltimore Ravens among the quality teams who bounced, following a pair of defeats.  Then, there was a team like the Pittsburgh Steelers, who after exploding in 3 consecutive home games, turned in a 4 TO, 13-point offensive effort vs. a Jets team who had lost 8 straight.  To be fair, there is a continuation of negative momentum as well, as losing teams began to tank their way toward the end of the season.  Those came in the persons of Jacksonville, Tennessee, NY Giants and the Chicago Bears, all of whom entered on losing streaks of 2 or more with records of 3-5 or worse at the halfway point. Those 4 teams went 0-4 SU ATS in NFL odds, losing by combined scores of 145-55, failing to cover by 57 points. 

That negative momentum concept in Game 9 seems to fit nicely for the Carolina Panthers, who could well play a “with need, you bleed” game.  As those who placed their early season NFL picks on them can recall, Carolina began the season 2-0 SU ATS, outscoring T Bay and Detroit 44-21.  Since that time, it has been all downhill, with a record of 1-5-1 SU, 1-6 ATS mark, in which they have failed to outgain their opponents in any of those contests.  Tonight, they enter on a 0-3 SU ATS slide, including a 38-17 road loss at Green Bay, followed by home dog losses by a combined count of 41-19 the previous 2 weeks.  That’s a total of only 36 points in 3 games.  If the showings of Jacksonville, Tennessee, NYG and Chicago are any indication, the Panthers are in a world of hurt tonight!  This is a team who has fallen precipitously from last year’s 12-5 SU entity, in which they outscored opponents by an average of 22-15.  The biggest decline is on the defensive side of the ball where they are allowing 26 PPG, 378 YPG and 6.1 YP play.  The disturbing part for Carolina is that this has all happened with the help of a +4 net TO margin.

Roaming the home sideline tonight is a Philly team who will be buoyed by the “QB injury theory.”  Most teams tend to step-up in a game following an injury to a key player.  Such would be the case for a Philly team, who lost the services of starting QB Foles in their 31-21 win at Houston last week.  QB Sanchez filled in admirably to finish that game.  Key note from that contest is that the Eagles went “ground” to solidify the win.  When the dust cleared, Philly had outrushed Houston 190-118, solidifying the fact that their OL is returning to health.  Look for all hands to play an inspired game in support of QB Sanchez and for the Eagles to use their re-found ground game, now averaging 125/4.3, to STEAMROLL the declining Carolina defensive front, allowing 132/4.8. Remember, the Eagles have established their 6-2 SU record, with +35 net AFP in the face of a -10 TO margin.  Combined with the Panthers’ +4 in that category, gives us the week’s 2nd biggest TO = turnaround margin (the 1st was the Jets’ -17 net TO margin vs. the Steelers).    

Complementing tonight’s selection on the Eagles will be our continuing backing of primetime games to go OVER the posted total.  You don’t need the memory of an elephant to recall Sunday night’s 69 points in the Chicago/Green Bay game, which boosted the record to NFL primetime OVERs this season to 23-7 OVER the total.


Free NFL Pick: Over 48 at The Greek