The preseason is in the books following a rollicking Thursday that capped off the month of practice. Before we look ahead to week 1 of the regular NFL season we recap the NFL betting action here
Week 4 Recap
In a week marred by the injury to Teddy Bridgewater during practice and all and sundry speculating whether the Vikings are still a playoff team without their starting quarterback, the Vikings emerged winners. Does that put paid on the notion the Vikings are set to tank in 2016? Too soon to tell. One thing we do know is the Vikings aren’t a team built to be carried by a quarterback. They play defense hard and run the ball a lot. Case-and-point, Bridgewater’s passing stats last season which didn’t exactly light up the Leaders Board did it.
In any event, the Vikings aside there were other winners of note including the Giants, Lions, Eagles, Titans, Colts, Panthers, Cards and Niners. What do we make of those wins and how will they impact (if at all) the first week of the regular season? Probably, not a whole lot. Besides, the aforementioned struggled during the month of August and left much to be desired while in most cases their respective opponents took it easy in the final week of preparations.
Tale told, home teams went 8-8 SU and 7-9 ATS while favourites went 9-7 SU and ATS. Finally, the under cashed in eleven of the sixteen matchups.
Nikki Adams Preseason Game-by-Game Record SU, ATS and Total
*Two games omitted in week 1 due to absence of NFL odds at the time of writing
NFL Thursday, September 1
New England Patriots 9 vs. New York Giants 17
MetLife Stadium, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Giants -1.5, Over/Under 40
Closing Line: Patriots -.1.5, Over/Under 38
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Patriots 90%
Review: The consensus betting on this matchup isn’t surprising. Patriots are one of the most popular teams in the NFL in public betting circles and that held true here as they were bet up from +1.5 to -1.5 on the road. Unfortunately, the public proved losers here. The G-men, who struggled abysmally in the first three preseason games, came out on top and gave the bookies a nice win.
New York Jets 6 vs. Philadelphia Eagles 14
Lincoln Financial Field, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Eagles -3.5, Over/Under 39
Closing Line: Eagles -3.5, Over/Under 37
Closing Consensus ATS Betting: Eagles 55.2%
Review: From start to finish the Eagles were the consensus bet and, correspondingly, the NFL betting line didn’t change overly, save for the total coming down by 2 points. In terms of proportion of betting to money, Eagles represented 55.97% of the market share. Tale told, the public got this game right as the eagles edged the Jets 14-6 and emerged winners.
Jacksonville Jaguars 15 vs. Atlanta Falcons 17
Georgia Dome, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Falcons -3.5, Over/Under 39.5
Closing Line: Falcons -3.5, Over/Under 38
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Falcons 55.9%
Review: Although the Falcons emerged 17-15 winners, they failed to cover the 3.5-point spread hanging on this game. Those NFL bettors that backed the Jaguars as the +3.5 underdogs cashed here, meaning the bookies cleaned up nicely. The 55.9% of spread bets coming down the wire represented 65% of the money staked on this game. Bookies win.
Tennessee Titans 21 vs. Miami Dolphins 10
New Miami Stadium, 7 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Dolphins -3, Over/Under 39.5
Closing Line: Dolphins -2.5, Over/Under 38
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Titans 58.4%
Preview: With the bulk of the betting going towards the Titans the NFL betting line moved in their direction, coming down from +3 to +2.5. At closing doors, the Titans represented almost 60% of the spread bets recorded with SBR consensus polls from contributing sportsbooks and that accounted for 71% of the money. To put it simply, the public beat the bookies soundly. It wasn’t even a close call.
Buffalo Bills 0 vs. Detroit Lions 31
Ford Field, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Lions -3, Over/Under 38.5
Closing Line: Lions -3, Over/Under 37.5
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Bills 50.20%
Preview: By closing doors, the Bills emerged with the slight edge in consensus betting. The interesting bit, however, the 50.20% of spread bets recorded only accounted for 30% of the money staked in this game. Sharp bettors were all over the Lions as the 49.80% of spread bets amounted to 64.62% of the money. Tale told, bookies took a significant loss in this game.
Indianapolis Colts 13 vs. Cincinnati Bengals 10
Paul Brown Stadium, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Bengals -3.5, Over/Under 39
Closing Line: Bengals -3, Over/Under 38
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Bengals 55.12%
Review: While the Bengals emerged as the consensus bet with 55.12% of the spread bets coming down the wire going towards the home cover, the money was split almost down the middle. To all intents and purposes, there weren’t many winners here by closing doors as the game pushed with the Colts edging the Bengals 13-10. Those that got in early when the Colts were the +3.5 road underdogs or higher though cashed.
Pittsburgh Steelers 6 vs. Carolina Panthers 18
Bank of America Stadium, 7:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Panthers -3.5, Over/Under 39
Closing Line: Panthers -4, Over/Under 37.5
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Panthers 58.05%
Review: Not only were the Panthers the consensus bet here as the home chalk but the money was significantly high in their camp. The 58.05% of spread bets accounted for more than 70% of the money risked on this game. As a result, they were bet up to -4 or higher at some sportsbooks. Despite the NFL betting line adjustments the books lost big here as the game wasn’t even close and the Panthers covered with plenty to spare.
Washington Redskins 20 vs. Tampa Bay Buccaneers13
Raymond James Stadium, 1 p.m. ET, Wednesday (rescheduled)
Opening Line: Buccaneers -3, Over/Under 39.5
Closing Line: Buccaneers -3, Over/Under 36
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: 50-50
Review: Given the uncertainty surrounding this game and the fact that it was rescheduled for Wednesday in lieu of a Hurricane warning in Florida, there was very little betting action of note. Probably a wise move by the public to give this game a skip, altogether.
Baltimore Ravens 23 vs. New Orleans Saints 14
Mercedes-Benz Superdome, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Saints -3.5, Over/Under 40.5
Closing Line: Saints -4.5, Over/Under 40
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Ravens 55.83%
Review: The public got this game totally and utterly correct as consensus betting polls reveal. Ravens had 55.83% of the spread bets and a whopping 68.36% of the money. A surge in late betting that jumped on the Ravens as the NFL betting line moved against them from +3.5 to +4.5. Tale told, the Ravens got the win and cover in a comprehensive 23-14 road win that cost the bookies something huge at the cash window.
Chicago Bears 21 vs. Cleveland Browns 7
FirstEnergy Stadium, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Browns -3, Over/Under 37
Closing Line: Browns -6, Over/Under 36.5
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Browns 52.78%
Review: Of all the games on the NFL odds board this one made absolutely no sense whatsoever from beginning to end. How the bookies could open the Browns as the -3 home faves and then back them in further to -6 home favourites beggars belief. The worst bit the public was all over it, backing the Browns to the tune of 52.78% consensus spread bets and 64.01% of the money. If it’s not obvious, it was a red flag and a trap. Bookies emerged winners here as the Bears tore up the Browns 21-7 to both win and cover.
Green Bay Packers 7 vs. Kansas City Chiefs 17
Arrowhead Stadium, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Chiefs -3.5, Over/Under 38
Closing Line: Chiefs -4, Over/Under 37
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Packer 56.03%
Review: With the Packers going 3-0 SU and ATS in the preseason and the Chiefs boasting a 0-3SU record, it’s not surprising the Packers emerged as the consensus bet with 56.03% of spread bets and 64.75% of the money risked. Tale told, the Chiefs came through for bookmakers as the significant home chalk. Public lost.
Los Angeles Rams 25 vs. Minnesota Vikings 27
U.S. Bank Stadium, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Vikings -3.5, Over/Under 36.5
Closing Line: PK, Over/Under 34.5
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Rams 53.18%
Review: The public panicked and overreacted to the news of Teddy Bridgewater’s season-ending injury, failing to consider the Vikings, a team built around its defense and run game more so than its quarterback, could actually win without Bridgewater. As a result, the Rams emerged the consensus bet with 53.18% of the spread bets and a whopping 90% of the money. To put it simply, the bookies won huge here.
Houston Texans 28 vs. Dallas Cowboys 17
AT&T Stadium, 8 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Cowboys -1.5, Over/Under 39
Closing Line: Texans -3, Over/Under 36.5
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Texans 63.1%
Review: This game was an instance where the public got it right and won big to boot. All in all, the Texans were bet up from +1.5 to -3 at closing doors thanks to acquiring 63.1% of spread bets and 81.25% of the money. Even with the NFL betting line moving in their favour in proportion to the betting the bookies didn’t avoid the big loss.
Denver Broncos 17 vs. Arizona Cardinals 38
U of Phoenix Stadium, 9:30 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Cardinals -4, Over/Under 38
Closing Line: Cardinals -4, Over/Under 37
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Broncos 63.38%
Review: Although the Broncos emerged as the 63.38% consensus bet according to SBR polls from contributing sportsbooks, smart money was on the Cards. The 38.62% of spread bets recorded amounted to a staggering70% of the money recorded. So, despite polls pointing to the Broncos, the bookies still emerged losers as sharp money cashed in.
Seattle Seahawks 23 vs. Oakland Raiders 21
Oakland Coliseum, 10 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Raiders -1.5, Over/Under 38.5
Closing Line: Raiders -1.5, Over/Under 38
Closing ATS Consensus Betting: Raiders 52.01%
Review: Although the Raiders emerged as the slight favourites amongst public bettors the money was split down the middle almost 50-50 between the Seahawks and Raiders. That’s somewhat surprising, don’t you think? Public and sharp bettors aren’t really distinguishing between these two teams? At the end of the day, there were winners and losers across the board as bookies broke even.
San Francisco 49ers 31 vs. San Diego Chargers 21
Qualcomm Stadium, 10 p.m. ET
Opening Line: Chargers -3, Over/Under 39.5
Closing Line: Chargers -1, Over/Under 38.5
Closing ATS Betting Consensus: Chargers 50.66%
Preview: Although the Chargers closed as the public consensus bet with 50.66% of spread bets the smart money was with the Niners to the tune of 66.08%. Hence, the reverse line movement against the Chargers as they whittled down from -3 to -1 at closing doors. Tale told, the Niners came from behind to win 31-21 and deal the bookies a bit of a stinging loss.