NFL Preseason Week 3: Friday Night Over/Under Picks

Jason Lake

Thursday, August 27, 2015 5:36 PM GMT

The UNDER went 9-7 during Week 2 of the preseason, thanks in part to a spate of injuries. Friday's football picks against the total will be following the same theme.

Imagine a software company making its product worse during beta testing. Okay, that's not too difficult to imagine. But the point remains – every year, the NFL sheds talented players during the preseason. Friday's Week 3 games are going to be missing quite a few starters, mostly on the offensive end, so we might be inclined to pound the UNDER with our NFL picks this week. Let's see what the schedule has in store for us.

 

New England at Carolina (7:30 p.m. ET)
We ran down the list when we looked at Friday's ATS picks: Carolina's offense will be without center Ryan Kalil and WR Kelvin Benjamin, and maybe WR Devin Funchess as well. New England is down several wideouts, from Julian Edelman to Brandon LaFell and Aaron Dobson. We doubt that Reggie Wayne will be ready for Friday night, either.

This would normally be a decent spot to give the OVER a spin. Bill Belichick has the OVER at 51-32 in his preseason career, and the Panthers did it twice this year to improve Ron Rivera's record to 10-8. But with all these injuries on offense, and with the betting public not really paying attention to these things, we'll roll with the UNDER instead.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 44 (–105) at Island Casino

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Click here to read Jason's Friday's NFL ATS Picks

Detroit at Jacksonville (8:00 p.m. ET, CBS)
There's a whole ton of receivers missing in this game, too. Jacksonville is minus Marqise Lee and Arrelious Benn, along with new TE Julius Thomas, while the Lions appear content to sit Calvin Johnson for the entire preseason. Both of Detroit's exhibition games this year went UNDER; the Jaguars split their two contests.

In this case, the coaching matchup is already more favorable to the UNDER. Gus Bradley has the UNDER at 7-3 during his preseason tenure with the Jags. Jim Caldwell is more offensively minded despite playing in Iowa's secondary during college, but he's dead-even against the total at 9-9, so we can safely ride the Bradley Experience with Jacksonville's thinned-down offense.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 41.5 (–105) at 5Dimes

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Tennessee at Kansas City (8:00 p.m. ET)
This one's a bit trickier. The Chiefs are a bit of a mess right now with both LT Eric Fisher (ankle) and RT Jeff Allen (knee) expected to miss Week 3; last week, Kansas City ground out a 14-13 win over the Seattle Seahawks (UNDER 40.5) with a mighty 238 yards of total offense. On the other hand, Andy Reid has the OVER at 37-28 in preseason action.

The Titans aren't helping, either. They've got plenty of quarterback depth now with Marcus Mariota doing everything he's been asked, and the OVER cashed in both times this year to improve to 17-14 with Ken Whisenhunt. Our early consensus reports showed 55 percent of bettors taking the UNDER at (-107) NFL odds, so we'll defer to the presumably sharp crew.

Free NFL Pick: Take UNDER 43 (–107) at Pinnacle

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