NFL Predictions - Public Pounding Patriots Against The Spread Odds In Week 2

Patriots Fan Gearing A Jersey And With His Face Painted With Teams Colors

Jason Lake

Saturday, September 17, 2016 4:09 PM UTC

Saturday, Sep. 17, 2016 4:09 PM UTC

After Jimmy Garoppolo's performance in Week 1, the New England Patriots are bound to be a popular NFL pick for Week 2 when the Miami Dolphins come to Foxborough.

Record: 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Totals

Timing is everything, right? There was a window of opportunity Sunday morning where the Dallas Cowboys were available at +1.5 for their season opener against the visiting New York Giants; that was even the closing line at some of the books on our NFL odds board. But the “official” close was Dallas –1, and the Cowboys ended up losing 20-19.

This is why we stress paying close attention to bet tracking – and to open accounts at more than one sportsbook. With a little practice, you can learn to anticipate when the lines move and when is the best time to make your NFL picks. The lowest-hanging fruit can be found when a team that people love is about to play a team people think is a joke; in general, you can expect the best price on the public team at the open, and the best price on the joke team at the close.

Fledgling Jim
Which brings us to Sunday's Week 2 matchup (1:00 p.m. ET, CBS) in Foxborough between the New England Patriots and the Miami Dolphins. Both teams covered in Week 1, but it was the Patriots beating the Arizona Cardinals (–9 at home) 23-21, while the Dolphins coughed up a last-minute TD in a 12-10 loss to the Seattle Seahawks (–10.5 at home). New England opened at –5 against Miami; as we go to press, the Pats are already up to –6.5 under early pressure from the wiseguys.

We have to tread carefully when dealing with the Patriots and their public profile. They don't have Tom Brady at quarterback until Week 5, and they didn't have Rob Gronkowski at tight end in Week 1 – his status for New England's home opener is uncertain at press time. But QB Jimmy Garoppolo was impressive against the Cardinals – a leading Super Bowl contender. You can already hear the bandwagon filling up again.

Miami Pound Machine
The Dolphins, on the other hand, got very little action in Week 1. They were the biggest underdogs on the board, playing in the league's toughest stadium. Miami haven't been to the playoffs, or even had a winning season, since 2008, and QB Ryan Tannehill is about as popular as the Zika virus. That doesn't make the Fish a bad football pick (or Tannehill a bad quarterback), but it did give patient sharps the chance to grab them on game day at +10.5 instead of +10.

This was against a Seattle team that hardly qualifies as a public darling. According to our expanded consensus reports from Sunday, only the Detroit Lions and Kansas City Chiefs saw less action in Week 1. Bring the Dolphins back to the East Coast, put them up against the Patriots, and we can expect the lines to move more than just a half-point on Sunday.

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Record: 2-0 ATS, 0-2 Totals

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