NFL Predictions - Identifying Early Sharp Action For Week 10

Kevin Stott

Tuesday, November 8, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 8, 2016 8:37 PM UTC

The Wiseguys and professional gamblers adopted a fade-the-bad teams approach in two of the Week 10 games firing on the Ravens and Cardinals against the two worst teams in the NFL right now—the Cleveland Browns and the San Francisco 49ers. Let’s look at these two games and make NFL picks on them.


Cleveland Browns vs. Baltimore Ravens

Line Open: Ravens -8 -110, Sunday (BetOnline)
Tuesday Morning Line: Ravens -11 -105 (5Dimes)

This NFL week 10 game has already shot up 3 points since open at offshore sportsbook 5Dimes and that’s mostly Wiseguys, some of whom have probably grown tired of blindly backing a Browns team which has gone 4-15 ATS its L19 (21.1%). Joe Flacco and the Ravens suddenly find themselves tied with the Steelers (4-4 SU) atop the AFC North and with Cleveland (L12 SU)—which has a 15% chance of going winless—having constant starting QB issues and the worst Defense in the NFL (421.7 ypg Allowed, 30.3 ppg), this seems like smart money and this one could keep rising to the 12- or 13-point range with the Thursday Night Football slot (NFL Network). But the Browns (2-6 ATS, -4 TO) have gone 5-1 ATS the L6 at M&T Bank Stadium in this matchup while Baltimore (3-4-1- ATS) won 25-20 in Week 2 at Cleveland, barely covering as 4-point favorites. It may be a good idea to fade the Browns (#32 NFL Scoring Margin, -11.7 ppg) until they prove they can cover at the betting windows.


Free NFL Pick: Ravens -10 -105 Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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San Francisco 49ers vs. Arizona Cardinals

Line Open: Cardinals -11½, Sunday (BetOnline)
Tuesday Morning Line: Cardinals -14½ +110 (5Dimes)

Analysis: The Cardinals are one of several high-profile NFC teams to disappoint this Regular Season, but the schedule gives Arizona (3-4-1 SU, 3-5 ATS) a big break here with Colin Kaepernick and the lowly San Francisco 49ers ( 1-7 SU/ATS) paying a visit to University of Phoenix Stadium in Glendale on Sunday afternoon. And so much early money means the Sharps are definitely fading the Niners (L7 ATS). And who can blame them, when they backed the Saints against San Francisco (-6 TO, Tied #26 in NFL) in Week 10 and won. The 49ers (-117.6 ypg) have been extremely vulnerable against the Run and have allowed a 100-yard Rusher in an NFL-record 7 straight games now after New Orleans RB Mark Ingram gashed San Francisco for 158 yards on 15 rushes (10.5 ypc) in the Saints 41-23 romp (and ATS cover) at Levi’s Stadium. Noteworthy here, Arizona has played 9 straight Unders at Home—including Postseason—and the 49ers are 31st in the NFL in Scoring Margin (-11.6 ppg). This team may have given up already. 


Free NFL Pick: Cardinals -13 -115 Best Line Offered: at BetDSI

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NFL Overall ATS Picks Record: 60-41-2




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