NFL Predictions - Betting Trends To Influence Week 8 Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, October 29, 2016 6:37 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 29, 2016 6:37 PM UTC

Week 8 is here and we weigh in on the betting trends that are influencing how odds trade down the stretch. Already, there are some interesting essentials to spot for your week 8 NFL picks. 


In this space, we look at a couple of matchups that reveal one-sided betting in which both the public and sharps are on-side. It remains to be seen whether they’ve got it right but you can bet the books will be rooting for the other side.


Kansas City Chiefs vs Indianapolis Colts  

Indianapolis Colts are 10-0-0 ATS as home underdogs since 2011, but despite this NFL betting trend the public and sharp bettors appear to be with Kansas City Chiefs. According to SBR Consensus Betting polls the Chiefs have 54.98% of the tickets taken and 62.84% of the money wagered (these stats are taken on Saturday, October 29).

As a consequence of this one-sided flow of betting the NFL line is creeping towards the Chiefs, improving from an opening -2.5 to -3 with some sports betting exchanges including low-juice and high limits leaders Bookmaker where the Chiefs are laying -3 (-105) at the time of writing. Those looking to back the Chiefs can still find them laying -2.5 with Pinnacle and BetOnline, but, admittedly at slightly higher juice of -115 and -120, respectively.


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New England Patriots vs Buffalo Bills

Just about every outlet is reporting one-sided betting on this AFC East matchup; on the side of the New England Patriots, naturally. Not for nothing are they America’s most popular team. Still, they do warrant this flow of betting given they are the best in the NFL with a 6-1-0 ATS record, underscored by a 9.9 winning margin and +6.3 differential versus the spread.

Last Sunday, when the Bills were leading over the Dolphins books opened the line for this week 8 NFL clash with the Patriots laying just -4 points. When the Bills fritted away the lead and lost books quickly upped the ante to Patriots laying -5. The sheer volume of early NFL betting bet up the Patriots to -6 by Monday where they remain until today. As it stands, the Patriots have 70.20% of tickets taken and a whopping 95.36% of the money.

A couple of books are flirting with higher lines such as Sports Interaction where the Patriots are laying -6.5 (-110) and Bodog where the Patriots are laying -7 (+105). Clearly, those books are testing the waters and, perhaps, looking for some buyback money on the Bills at higher juice.

Buffalo boast a 4-3-0 ATS mark which includes an 8.0 winning margin and +7.7 differential versus the spread. One could argue that statistically the +6 to +7 spread trading with the Bills falls into the wheelhouse here, smack within the differential on the season. Put this way, just because the Bills are a public and sharp fade should they be your fade too in week 8 NFL picks?  Keep in mind, with such one-sided betting the books will be rooting for the Bills. 

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