The NFL season is down to its last few weeks and playing some of the big favorites against the betting odds takes courage, yet at the same time supporting fat underdogs is a conundrum.
This happens every year in every sport as the sportsbooks determine the have’s and have not’s when setting the NFL odds and we have to do our best to figure what side to be on with sports picks.
We at Sportsbook Review are doing our best to make this experience somewhat easier with our score-based NFL Power Rankings. We try to accurately assess each game and give you our thoughts for NFL picks each week.
Make sure to check our numbers vs. the oddsmakers line on Friday mornings and any favorite we have larger by three or four points is 16-7 ATS this season.
With our NFL power rankings, we have a new No. 1 and it is Seattle. New England is in second place with Denver third, followed by Green Bay and Philadelphia. We also have a new leader in the basement, with Tennessee listed as our worst team.
|Power Ratings||Start||Current||Power Ratings||Start||Current|
|NFC East||AFC East|
|NFC North||AFC North|
|NFC South||AFC South|
|NFC West||AFC West|
|San Francisco||98||92||Kansas City||95||97|
|St. Louis||93||96||San Diego||96||96|
Thursday – St. Louis - 1 over Arizona
We are of the opinion the betting public has overreacted to the Rams last two shutouts wins in lifting St. Louis to -4. Arizona is 15-6 ATS in NFC games recently, including 3-0 ATS against the Rams.
Kansas City -11 over Oakland
The odds makers opening line was the Chiefs at -11.5 and we will not quibble with the number now at -10 with Oakland 7-1 ATS at Kansas City.
Baltimore - 20 over Jacksonville
No question our number is much higher the sportsbooks and here is why. Jacksonville is 1-9 in games determined by 10 or more points and Baltimore is 6-1 in those same types of outcomes, which helps lead to this figure.
Atlanta – 2 over Pittsburgh
This is one of two of our outright upsets. Atlanta is horrible on defense but averages 31.8 points per game at home and is Pittsburgh is 2-9 ATS as road favorite off a double digit victory facing a team with a losing record.
Indianapolis -8 over Houston
Our number is 1.5-points higher than the odds makers and our theory is the odds makers don’t want to make a 7, figuring they will catch a lot of
Houston money. With the Colts 12-0 and 8-4 ATS against the Texans, crossing that threshold should not be an issue.
Cleveland -1 over Cincinnati
When we first generated this outcome, even we wondered what we had, but the betting public joined us in taking the Browns from +2.5 to -1. Let’s see if we were both correct.
New England -12 over Miami
Almost every NFL football handicapper would think we have too large a number on New England at home in this division matchup. Yet in December, the Patriots are 10-1 ATS off a won and cover versus division foe off a SU setback.
Tampa Bay -1 over Carolina
Even before Cam Newton was in car accident we had the Buccaneers to engineer the upset. Carolina was impressive last week, nonetheless is still 2-8-1 SU since Week 3 and not that much better than Tampa Bay if at all.
N.Y. Giants -9 over Washington
The spread differential in this NFC East conflict is more about how bad the Redskins are than the state of the New York Giants.
Green Bay -4 over Buffalo
We figured this line would come down once bettors took a close look at Green Bay scoring 45.3 percent fewer points on the road compared to at Lambeau Field.
Detroit -8 over Minnesota
In this NFC North clash, we have an exact match with the sportsbooks on what the outcome could be.
N.Y. Jets -5 over Tennessee
It came as no surprise to us Gang Green was flipped from an underdog to a favorite against a miserable Tennessee team.
Denver -4 over San Diego
Another exact harmony choice between us and the linemakers.
Seattle -16 over San Francisco
This is going to raise eyebrows (it did ours also), but consider this. Seattle is 4-1 ATS in last five games with a score differential of +59, while San Francisco has failed to cover its last three outings as favorites and is -23 in score differential.
SNF – Philadelphia – 9 over Dallas
How can this be? On the last week of October, these teams had identical power rankings. Since then Dallas has dropped six points and Philadelphia stayed the same. Add three points for the Eagles at home and there you have it!
MNF – New Orleans – 2 over Chicago
The first bowl game of the season, the – Maalox Disappointment Bowl. We are one point lower than the books, does it really matter?