Jason’s record on his final weekly NFL picks for the 2012 postseason:
0-4 ATS (–4.22 units)
3-1 Totals (+1.9 units)
Profit: –2.32 units
One game has old-school appeal. The other is a small-market affair. Either way, we’re liable to see some great football this weekend. Four outstanding quarterbacks will be featured. So will four quality defenses. You can pretty much pick your NFL betting poison in either game, but I do like the Seahawks more than any other team in the Divisional round.
Sunday: Take the Seahawks +2.5 (+100) at Sport Bet
Oh my goodness me. Using the same efficiency-based logic I laid out in my spread pick for the Packers and 49ers game, I took Seattle with a smile at the open, and the price has stayed roughly the same in very light betting. I mean very light: The average bet size for Seattle is $49, and just $30 for the home side Atlanta Falcons. I smell ratings!
That’s what you get when you pit two regional markets against one another. As a Seahawks fan (and please take into account my bias if you haven’t already), I’m happy to see my team face the Falcons in this round, but as a handicapper, I’d much rather have seen these two teams split up to face the public darlings from Green Bay and San Francisco. NFL betting advantages are already hard enough to come by at this stage of the season.
Just to review: The Seahawks (12-5 SU and ATS) finished the season No. 1 on the efficiency charts; the Falcons (13-3 SU, 9-6-1 ATS) were No. 10. So of course I’m going to take Seattle in this situation. One added caveat: Seahawks PK Steven Hauschka (24-of-27 on field goals this year) was put on IR Wednesday with a strained calf. Ryan Longwell was signed off the street to replace him. Longwell was 22-of-28 for the Vikings last year before losing his job to rookie Blair Walsh. This doesn’t help Seattle’s chances, but the added risk is small enough in my view. Fingers and toes crossed.
NFL Picks: Seahawks +2.5