NFL Championship line movement blog update
Divisional Round NFL Picks: Friday Odds & Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
It is Friday, and we are 48 hours away from the kickoff of the two championship games. The lines have been moving a bit more, and a lot of money is being wagered on these two games. Let’s take one of our last looks at these lines before the games kick off on Sunday.
The Falcons and 49ers have seen more money this week than the other game, and for good reason. This should be a spectacular game, and after jumping up to -4 ½ and even -5 favorites, the 49ers have dropped back down to earth, and are sitting where they started as -3 ½ and -4. Taking points at home seems like a good value to me if you also like the Falcons. I really think this line should be a bit lower, and I also think that people aren’t giving the Falcons a fair deal.
In the late game, the Patriots had similar movement this week, as they jumped up to -9 ½ and -10 favorites, but were bet back down to -8 ½ and back -9 now. The Ravens proved everyone wrong last week against Peyton Manning, but now they have Tom Brady standing in their way. A lot of people think that Brady is going to be a much tougher opponent than Manning was, and I am one of them. While I’m not sure on which side of this spread I like, I can say that I think the Pats might see another shot of money before game time, pushing the spread back higher. The Ravens have had a nice run so far, but I think it finally stops here. The question is if you can get one more cash out of them before they head on vacation.
Divisional Round NFL Picks: Wednesday Odds & Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
We have reached the middle of the week and the NFL championship odds are starting to move a bit more than what they have in the last couple of days. Only two games remained until the Super Bowl is set, and the amount of money coming in on these games is growing quicker every day.
We'll start in the NFC, where after early weak bettors pounded the 49ers all the way up to -5 in some cases, the spread is starting to settle back down to where it opened, which is at -3 ½ and -4. There are still a few books that have it higher than this, but it looks as if they too will follow shortly in moving the line back down. There is no reason an NFC title game should have the home assessment underdogs. Personally I still think the Falcons have a lot of value here as underdogs, which is why yesterday I recommended hitting them at +5 when you could.
The AFC is a bit different, however after that line saw a lot of action on one side, the underdogs are starting to make a comeback in that game. New England opened as a -9 favorite, and after yesterday saw them bet up to almost 10 points. Now it seems that more money is coming in on the Ravens, moving the line down to -8 and -8 1/2 in some places. At the beginning of the week I thought the line would settle down to around there by the time game time hits. Even after the Ravens got some of the money back, the Patriots are still getting 70% of the money wagered on this game. Until that changes the line will not drop very dramatically.
Divisional Round NFL Picks: Tuesday Odds & Line Movement Update
By: Jordan Sharp
After opening up at -3 ½ in favor of the 49ers, the number has moved up a half to -4, and in some cases, -4 1/2 in favor of the road team. I am starting to see some nice value emerge on this game. No one is giving the Falcons the time of day, and as the public is jumping on the 49ers, it appears that big bets on Atlanta are keeping the money rather even.
I'll say this, if the Falcons go up any further I think +4 ½ should be taken with fury. The only reason the money isn't favoring the 49ers right now in the 60% range is because the average that size on the Falcons taking points at home is $1000. I am almost ready to give my full seal of approval to the Atlanta Falcons in this game.
The AFC title game is a bit different when it comes to the money being wagered. Early in the week, the Patriots have seen over 80% of the money already wagered on this game. The average bet size is nearly 10 times that of what is being wagered on the Ravens right now, and yet we haven't seen a whole lot of movement since the line settled.
So we obviously know who the sports books are rooting for this weekly comes to the AFC title game, but much like it seems the public is obsessed with San Francisco, should everyone and their mother be so ready to lay nine points with the New England Patriots? I'm not sure the answer that question just yet, so I suggest you lay off for another few days until you see where this line starts to move later in the week.
Divisional Round NFL Picks: Opening Odds & Line Movement Predictions
By: Jordan Sharp
With only two games and four teams left in the NFL playoffs, the NFC and AFC Championship games are set at last. After one of the best weekends of football I’ve seen in a long time, the Falcons, 49ers, Patriots and Ravens will fight to earn a spot in this year’s Super Bowl.
The NFL betting lines are out and ready for action for these games and there should be plenty of action on both sides of both lines. Let’s take a look at both lines and see if there is early value for our NFL picks this week.
49ers vs. Falcons
Despite being the #1 seed, their performance in the 2nd half of the divisional round was enough to make the Falcons home underdogs in the NFC Championship game. With the 49ers coming to town, Atlanta is listed at +3.5, and despite San Francisco getting about 68% of all bets, the money is very close. Check out the SBR’s NFL Consensus Report for more information, but as of now only a slight majority of money has come in on the 49ers.
I think you have to see some value in the Falcons here. A home game in the Georgia Dome is no easy cookie to eat, and while the 49ers are built to beat the Falcons, Atlanta won’t go down without a fight.
I think this line will drop, but only by a half point or so. I think you’ll see the money even out a bit more, and for the Falcons to get a bit more of that money back. We will watch it closely all week.
Ravens vs. Patriots
Once again, the Ravens are David against a Goliath this week, only this time they are in New England to face the Patriots. The early lines out for this game are favoring the Patriots by -9 or -10, and while early action reports haven’t been generated just yet, after last year’s AFC title game, and the Ravens’ play so far in the playoffs, I think we can expect some action on Baltimore early in the week.
Whether it’s enough to warrant moving the line down is a whole other story, but I think the public is going to open up on the Ravens. The public loves a feel good story, and Ray Lewis and the Ravens have given it to them.
After beating Denver, the public will jump on them, giving sensible people like you and I the opportunity to wait until (if) the line drops and lay the points. New England is and should be a solid favorite in this game regardless. I really like the Ravens, and I think they have a good shot at upsetting. However, I feel more confident in Tom Brady and New England. See where the money is before you make a move, but I’m confident that New England can cover ten points. The question is what to do if the lien goes up from here.