NFL Playoff Picks: Bet Underdog Colts to Cover ATS vs. Patriots

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, January 16, 2015 6:03 PM GMT

Friday, Jan. 16, 2015 6:03 PM GMT

Relative newcomer Indianapolis, behind QB Luck, visits the old guard of New England in an effort to upend the “been there done that” tandem of HC Belichick and QB Brady.

Indianapolis Colts vs. New England Patriots (-6-) 6:40 ET
Relative newcomer Indianapolis, behind QB Luck, visits the old guard of New England in an effort to upend the “been there done that” tandem of HC Belichick and QB Brady.  The fact that Indy got over the road hump at Denver last week is a major positive for the visiting Colts. These teams last met November 16th, when New England visited Indianapolis and totally dominated the Colts in a 42-20 victory. In that game, New England overcame a -1 in the net TO column to have a 244-19 overland edge and a 501-322 overall advantage.  The Colts will need a monumental turnaround from that game, if they are hoping to even the season series. 

Current form of Indianapolis, however, says that the Colts may just be ready to upset the perennial champs. Last week, the Colts visited Denver where they won a 24-13 decision that was easier than the final score. Along the way, they overcame a -1 in the net TO column and emerged with a 364-289 yardage edge.  For the 3rd season in a row, QB Luck has led the Colts to an 11 or more win season. This year, the Colts’ road fortunes improved to 6-3 SU ATS. This is a major buy sign on an emerging team whose previous dominance had come at home with a young signal caller.  The numbers say QB Luck is just 6-9 ATS as a road dog, including 1-2 ATS in the playoffs.  This year, the Colts are 3-4 SU vs. playoff teams but 4-3 ATS. Consider the victory at Denver last week to be the buy sign on the road ability of this team. Though Indy may be playing their 4th game in 5 weeks on the road, it is recent improvement in defense which has seen this team allow 13 or fewer points in 4/5 recent games which must peak our interest when checking out the NFL odds.  In short, an improving defense and the road win at Denver last week are signs that this team is capable of playing with New England today.

Want More Betting Action? Check Out These Colts/Pats Prop Options

New England again had a strong home field, going 8-1 SU, but just 5-4 ATS. The Patriots played the best down the stretch.  With the reinstatement of TE Gronkowski from injury, New England finished the season on an 11-2 SU, 8-5 ATS surge.  On this field, they are 20-10 ATS as home chalk to -8.   They were, however, fortunate to escape the Ravens on this field last week.  Falling behind by 14 points on 2 different occasions, New England rallied for a 35-31 win.  But, Baltimore dominated them at the point of attack with a 136-14 running edge.  It gives one pause, when considering that New England is now on a run of 3-11 ATS in playoffs, 3-8 ATS on this field in the playoffs and 0-5 ATS in recent AFC Championship games. 

Favor the emergence of Indianapolis in this game against a New England team, who at last may be on a downturn. But before you make your NFL picks, note that the Patriots are 3-0 SU ATS vs. Luck, winning by margins of 35, 21 and 22 points.  

NFL Pick: Take Indianapolis Colts +6.5 at BetOnline

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