NFL Playoff Picks to be Influenced by Public Betting Flows?

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, January 15, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 15, 2015 7:11 PM UTC

Sometimes when you can find out where the public is throwing away their money, it can be a very useful piece of information. However with only two games this weekend in the NFL Odds, it becomes even more important. Here is a look at where the public might be with their NFL Picks. 

Packers vs. Seahawks
Right now the SBR Consensus page has no data on the NFL odds for this game, but I can only speculate that the Hawks will likely take most of the public’s money in this one. The public loves favorites already, and by the looks of it, they could be jumping back aboard the Seahawks bandwagon. Why not, right? The Hawks destroyed the Packers on the opening day of the season, and right now Seattle is playing their best football.

On the other side you have Aaron Rodgers, who is playing on one leg against one of the league’s most feared defenses. The mind of the public bettor thinks these things, however it could open up some value on the other side. I do not think this will be a game where the public and the sharps are on the same side. I could easily see a substantial sum of money on the Packers taking +7 ½ this week, and maybe even the moneyline. I don’t expect it to be big enough to move the line more than a half point down to +7, but sometime this week someone will jump on the underdog. If the Packers can run the ball like they have against the Lions in Week 17 and Cowboys this past week, Seattle will be in a little bit of trouble. However once we have more data in the next few days, I expect the public to be on Seattle.

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Colts vs. Patriots
However we do have some early-week data from the AFC Championship, and unlike above, it appears the public and sharps are both on the favorites in this one. The Patriots’ NFL Odds have dropped a half point down to -6 ½, and it seems to have influenced some betting on the Patriots now less than a seven-point favorite. According to our Consensus Page, nearly 90% of the money being wagered on this game is on the Patriots right now, and while the bets are a little split, the money is firmly on one side in this one.

I’m not sure if this is going to influence the line anymore, and potentially send it back upward. The Bovada group of sportsbooks are the only books that still have the line at -7 New England, but I would not be surprised to see some of the others head that way. There have been some changes in the chalk for some books since the line has dropped to -6 ½, and there are even books like SBOBet that have the Colts at +6 (+103).

The two offenses in this game are both extremely talented and diverse, but when it comes down to it all, the Patriots own the better run-game and defense, two things that will ultimately take them to the win in this one. If you like the Patriots, I would advise you make them your NFL pick now, because the spread could be -7 ½ before Sunday.

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