NFL Playoff Betting: Ravens vs. Broncos NFL Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, January 11, 2013 2:15 PM UTC

Friday, Jan. 11, 2013 2:15 PM UTC

Some football pundits say the balance of power has shifted to the NFC. But the football betting lines say the AFC is more likely to produce the next Super Bowl champions.

Jason’s record on his final weekly NFL picks for the 2012 postseason:

0-4 ATS (–4.22 units)

3-1 Totals (+1.9 units)

Profit: –2.32 units

So, the old guard is back. The NFC looks stronger than ever with the rehabilitation of the NFC West and the continued success of the Green Bay Packers. But it’s the AFC that’s favored by 2.5 points (–135) on Bodog’s Super Bowl XLVII futures market. The top two Super Bowl favorites are also from the AFC: the Denver Broncos (11-4) and the New England Patriots (7-2).So, how do we lean for our free picks?

Saturday: Baltimore at Denver                                                                                                                     See Sunday's game prediction here~

When the NFL odds lines opened for the Divisional round, I recommended the Ravens at +9 (–105). I’m happy enough to take that extra point for an extra five cents of vigorish. According to the Wizard of Odds, that point has a fair price of about 10 cents. Why the move? Our consensus reports as we go to press show 52 percent of bettors siding with the Broncos, but those bettors have put in over 92 percent of the money in the pool.

Holy frijoles. That’s an average bet size of $343 on Denver compared to $29 on Baltimore, the lowest of all eight teams in action this weekend. I’d be keeping my bet size small for the Ravens, too, but I’d keep it small for all these playoff games. There are no bad teams in the postseason.

Having said that, I’m encouraged that the Ravens (11-6 SU, 7-9-1 ATS) are being overlooked. Getting onto that magic number 10 is nice; if they move to +10.5 at a decent price, even better. And it’s pretty much a lock that the betting public will be all over Peyton Manning and the brightly colored Broncos (13-3 SU, 10-6 ATS) in this matchup. Oooh, shiny!

I’m actually on the OVER in this game. So, I can’t recommend the standard underdog-UNDER parlay in this situation. But I don’t think it’s going to be a blowout with Baltimore’s defense closer to full strength and the temperatures expected to dip below 15 degrees at kick-off. I’ll fade the public in this one for my NFL Picks.


NFL Free Picks: Take the Baltimore Ravens +10 at SIA
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