NFL Playoff Betting: Patriots vs. Texans Spread Picks

Jason Lake

Friday, January 11, 2013 2:46 PM GMT

So, the NFC West is back, along with the always solid play of Green Bay, making the conference seem like the Grid -Iron beast of old. But is it wise to side with the NFC for our NFL Betting selections?
AFC Divisional Round: Betting the Spread

Jason’s record on his final weekly NFL picks for the 2012 postseason:

0-4 ATS (–4.22 units)

3-1 Totals (+1.9 units)

Profit: –2.32 units

So, the NFC West is back, along with the always solid play of Green Bay, making the conference seem like the Grid -Iron beast of old. The AFC is favored by 2.5 points (–135) in Bodog’s Super Bowl XLVII futures market. Both Super Bowl odds favorites are from the AFC as well: the Denver Broncos (11-4) and the New England Patriots (7-2).So, what should I say for our free picks?

Sunday: New England vs. Houston                                                                                                         See Saturday's game prediction here~

I’ll follow the public in this one for my NFL Free Picks. There’s actually plenty of anti-Patriots sentiment out there, and the early burst of sharp action was on Houston. How sharp? The Texans (13-4 SU, 10-7 ATS) have the biggest average bet size of all eight teams this week at $1525, compared to $986 for New England. That’s despite the Patriots (12-4 SU, 9-7 ATS) getting about 53 percent of bettors to open up their wallets.

Again, no way in heck I’d want to overdo it on the bet sizing with either team. Unlike Saturday’s game, though, I’m content to take the home favorites. I don’t see as much market value in Houston’s defense, which is still missing LB Brian Cushing among others. The Texans didn’t perform all that well in their 19-13 Wild Card victory over the Cincinnati Bengals (+4 away). And they certainly didn’t perform well in their 42-14 loss to the Patriots (–5.5 at home) in Week 14.

Houston, by the way, hasn’t scored a touchdown through the air since Week 15 against the Indianapolis, and only three rushing touchdowns in the last four games including that contest. And the weather should suit New England: temperatures around 45 degrees, 20 percent chance of rain. I’m sure Bill Belichick will be sporting one of his finest parkas on Sunday.

[gameodds]16/217225/43/us[/gameodds]


Free NFL Picks: Take the Patriots –9.5 (+101)

Good luck with the rest of your sports picks and don't forget to check our NFL Betting Odds page to stay on top of the movements!